GTA’s Fall Housing Market Begins With Wave of Underbidding

Autumn is often when bidding competition in the Greater Toronto Area’s housing market heats up, but, this year, more homebuyers are purchasing homes for below asking price, analysis by digital real estate platform Wahi suggests.

By Josh Sherman | 3 minute read

Some 74% of the neighbourhoods in the Greater Toronto Area were selling under-asking in September as bidding competition continued to calm down.

About three quarters (74%) of Greater Toronto Area neighbourhoods are in underbidding territory as higher interest rates and inflation are reducing competition among homebuyers, according to Wahi’s September 2023 Market Pulse Report.

Overall, 209 neighbourhoods were underbid, compared to 67 in overbidding territory and eight where homes were selling at asking price. To identify overbidding and underbidding neighbourhoods each month, Wahi compares the differences between median list and sold prices for all types of homes, including condo units and houses. Neighbourhoods with fewer than five transactions in a month are excluded from calculations. 

When a neighbourhood is in underbidding territory, it can signal less competition between homebuyers. However, other market conditions, such as seasonal factors or REALTORS® listing homes for unrealistically high prices, can also have an influence.

While housing affordability remains a challenge for many in the Greater Toronto Area, less bidding competition can provide an opportunity for certain homebuyers, says Wahi CEO Benjy Katchen. “Some homebuyers may be able to get a better price on their desired home,” he explains. “Meanwhile, with greater selection and fewer competing offers, homebuyers can take a bit more time to shop around for their ideal home and negotiate favourable offer terms.”

The GTA’s Top Underbidding Neighbourhoods: September 2023 

“The top underbidding neighbourhoods this year have typically been more expensive, while the top overbidding neighbourhoods have tended to be neighbourhoods with lower home prices,” Katchen continues. “This trend continued in September,” he adds.

The most underbid GTA neighbourhoods in September are communities that are known for multi-million-dollar houses and evenly split between Oakville and Toronto proper, with one Markham neighbourhood also joining the top five.

The share of neighbourhoods where homes are selling under asking has been increasing since June. However, the trend is showing some signs of easing. For example, between July and August, the share of underbidding neighbourhoods surged from 57% to 71%, whereas September saw a comparatively small month-over-month increase.

The GTA’s Top Overbidding Neighbourhoods: September 2023

Despite widespread underbidding activity in the GTA housing market last month, there were still dozens of neighbourhoods where homebuyers generally paid over asking on homes. And — in three neighbourhoods in particular — there were double-digit increases between median list and sold prices. Note that in some cases, this could be a function of sellers listing their homes below value to attract more attention.