2025 Wahi GTA Housing Snapshot Report

With a tariff tug-of-war, a federal election that saw the Liberals upset the Conservatives to earn a fourth term, and an earlier-than-anticipated end to the Bank of Canada’s rate-cutting cycle, 2025 was a year that may have only been predictable for its unpredictability. But against a backdrop of economic and political uncertainty, one thing did remain a constant: the Greater Toronto Area’s real estate slump.

The downturn — which the aforementioned uncertainty certainly helped fuel — was more or less consistent across the region’s five geographic submarkets. Prices and sales volumes declined on a year-over-year basis in Durham, Halton, Peel, Toronto, and York. Homes also took longer to sell in each of these areas, contributing to a massive inventory of available listings as the year progressed. Around the midway point of 2025, listings reached a multi-decade high in excess of 30,000 properties.

While sluggish (at best) conditions emerged no matter where you looked in the region, the extent of the downturn did vary significantly by property type. By far, the GTA’s once-high-flying condo segment was hit harder than the single-family home market, which has been less affected by investors (or a lack thereof). 

Regardless of property type, homebuyers who managed to brave economic uncertainty, whether by necessity or choice, were more likely to get concessions from motivated sellers. Gone were the days when buyers were frequently waiving conditions in hopes of beating out the competition.

Looking ahead at the high level, analysts view the coming year as a period of reset for the Canadian housing market at large. Wahi’s recent Homebuyer Intentions Survey also found that Canadians are at least as intent on purchasing a property this year as they were in 2025. However, market-watchers note, for the Canadian housing market’s weakest spots — among them the GTA’s condo segment — the path to recovery is expected to take more time.

The GTA’s condo segment ended the year with 14% fewer units changing hands compared to 2024 as investors remained largely absent from the market, with the exception of those trying to offload recently completed units. Investors who purchased pre-construction units prior to mid-2022 have been taking possession of units in a higher-interest-rate environment. This has led to higher-than-expected carrying costs for investors who may have been banking on flipping their unit upon completion. Unable to sell, more investors have been putting their units up for rent, but the increased supply of units has favoured renters by putting deflationary pressure on rents. 

In contrast to condos, single-family home sales declined by a less-substantial-but-still-significant 7% on a year-over-year basis. Nonetheless, annual price declines for single-family homes (-7%) and condos (-6%) were similar.

Home Sales Trends

Similar to 2024, the arrival of the normally busier spring and fall markets didn’t boost single-family home sales last year.

Home Price Trends

Early in the year, single-family home prices had shown more resilience, but in the second half of 2025 downward pressure intensified. 

Condo prices held firmer at the start of the year but were in a sustained free fall by the end of 2025.

Luxury Housing Trends

Cooler conditions prevailed in the GTA real estate market’s luxury segment — which encompasses residential properties that sell for at least $3 million — though renewed interest from certain well-heeled homebuyers emerged in the second half of 2025. During Q3, eight of the 22 GTA neighbourhoods with at least five $3-million-plus home sales registered an increase in sales activity relative to the same period in 2024.

Community Spotlight

Wahi drilled down into the market data at the neighbourhood and municipal level to identify hyper-local trends including the most- and least-affordable communities, fastest- and slowest-selling pockets of the GTA and more.

Reflecting tougher conditions for the luxury market, upscale neighbourhoods were where homes took the longest time to sell. Conversely, neighbourhoods known for relative affordability, such as the the east-end Toronto neighbourhoods of The Danforth and Riverdale, saw homes changing hands at a healthier clip despite weaker market conditions overall. Affordability remains top of mind for many buyers.

Other key findings:

• Once again, the majority of the fastest-selling neighbourhoods were in the City of Toronto. 
• In the region’s slowest-selling neighbourhoods, it can take homeowners nearly seven weeks to find a buyer.
• Interestingly, more than one of the most affordable neighbourhoods of 2025 was located in Toronto proper, demonstrating how much prices can vary at the hyper-local level.

Overbidding and Underbidding Trends

Every month, Wahi compares the differences between median list and sold prices to determine whether neighbourhoods are in overbidding or underbidding territory, excluding those with fewer than five transactions. For much of 2025, the GTA’s housing market was deep in underbidding territory — even more so than in 2024. Note that a variety of factors can influence overbidding and underbidding activity. For instance, in addition to seasonality, sellers may list their homes for lower prices in hopes of sparking a bidding war.

Highlights:

• Bidding activity crested in the GTA in February and March, when 20% of neighbourhoods were in overbidding territory. In 2024, the peak also occurred in March, with 43% of neighbourhoods landing in overbidding territory.
• Four rate cuts from the Bank of Canada, including back-to-back reductions in September and October, did not appear to strengthen homebuying competition.
• On three separate occasions, the monthly share of neighbourhoods in underbidding territory matched the all-time high (98%): August, October, and December.

Percentage of GTA Homes Selling Above, Below, and At-Asking Price: December 2025

Wahi also looks at the percentage of listings overall that sell above, below, and at-asking regardless of neighbourhood. In the final month of the year, approximately eight-in-10 sellers in the GTA were settling for offers that were less than the listed price.

The top five overbidding and underbidding neighbourhoods are ranked each month by the median overbid or underbid amount. The median overbid and underbid amounts are calculated by subtracting the list price from the sold price of each listing in a neighbourhood. These are then ranked by the median of all subtractions and presented as the median overbid or underbid amount.

To determine the top overbidding and underbidding neighbourhoods in 2025, Wahi looked at which neighbourhoods made the most appearances in the monthly top-five roundups. Neighbourhoods needed to make the monthly top five at least five times in the course of the year for inclusion. Due to greatly reduced homebuying competition, only one neighbourhood met this criteria for overbidding. 

After two consecutive years as the most consistent neighbourhood to appear in the top five for underbidding, Eastlake was overtaken by York Mills in 2025. 

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