Underbidding Approaches Record High in GTA Real Estate Market

The share of GTA neighbourhoods in underbidding territory reached the second-highest level since Wahi began tracking homebuyer competition in July 2022.

By Josh Sherman | 4 minute read

The start of the usual summer slowdown in the Greater Toronto Area’s real estate market was especially pronounced this year.

Underbidding in the Greater Toronto Area’s housing market is nearing the highest level since Wahi began comparing the differences between monthly list and sale prices for homes across the region in July 2022.

In June, 93% of GTA neighbourhoods with at least five home sales were in underbidding territory, compared to 87% in May and 71% during the same month last year. An additional 5% of neighbourhoods were overbid, while 2% were selling at asking, according to the latest Market Pulse report from Wahi, a Canadian real estate listing website.

June’s share of underbidding neighbourhoods is the second-highest on record, matching levels reached in December 2024 and November 2023. Underbidding set a new watermark in January 2024 and December 2023, when 98% of neighbourhoods were seeing home prices bid down. Note that seasonality influences bidding trends, as there’s generally less homebuying activity in the summer and winter months.

While underbidding activity remained elevated in June, Wahi CEO Benjy Katchen notes that buyer competition varies by property type and location, and bidding dynamics often come down to individual listing attributes. “When a neighbourhood is in underbidding territory, it doesn’t mean that every property is selling for less than asking or that sellers are taking huge losses,” he says. “It’s a general indicator of market behaviour.”

Though the GTA-wide median amount by which home prices were bid down has been rising in recent months, it was $22,450 in June, roughly in line with what was observed the last time underbidding was so widespread at the neighbourhood level, in December 2024.

Once again, bidding competition in the condo segment (-$17,300) was considerably softer than what was observed for single-family homes (-$24,974), which include detached and semi-detached houses as well as row and freehold townhomes. Some 95% of GTA neighbourhoods with at least five condo sales were underbid in June, compared to 86% when looking at single-family homes only.

7-in-10 GTA Homes Selling Below Asking

The share of neighbourhoods in underbidding territory only tells part of the story. Wahi also looks at what percentage of all homes across the GTA are selling for below asking each month. In June, 71% of homes sold for less than the list price, compared to 68% in May, with the remainder selling above or at asking.

Here, too, there was a significant discrepancy between condos and single-family homes. Last month, 79% of GTA condos changed hands for under asking, while the same was true of 67% of single-family homes. In May, underbid sales represented 78% of all transactions in the condo segment and 64% of single-family home deals.

Competition Strongest in Durham, City of Toronto

Of the five major markets that make up the GTA (the City of Toronto, Durham, Halton, Peel, and York), Durham was the most competitive. There, 36% of homes that sold in June achieved a price at or above listing, followed by the City of Toronto at 32%.

On the flipside, homes were most likely to sell below asking in Halton, (80%), Peel (75%), and York (74%).

There were no repeats on the latest monthly top five of the GTA’s top underbidding neighbourhoods, which are ranked by the median underbid amount. However, similar to May, these neighbourhoods tended to have higher price points.

Just 14 neighbourhoods were in overbidding territory across the GTA in June. Among these, Riverdale was the lone carryover from May’s top five, although the east Toronto neighbourhood dropped to the second spot as it was replaced by Rouge Woods, in Richmond Hill.

Methodology: How Wahi Ranks Overbidding and Underbidding Neighbourhoods

At the end of each month, Wahi compares the differences between median list and sold prices to determine whether neighbourhoods are in overbidding or underbidding territory, excluding those neighbourhoods with fewer than five transactions in a given month. A total of 289 neighbourhoods out of the GTA’s approximately 400 met this threshold in June, down from 298 in May. Data is sourced from Information Technology Systems Ontario (ITSO) and the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB).

The top overbidding and underbidding neighbourhoods are ranked by the median overbid or underbid amount. The median overbid and underbid amounts are calculated by subtracting the list price from the sold price of each individual listing in a given neighbourhood. These are then ranked by the median of all subtractions and presented as the median overbid or underbid amount. For the latest data on overbidding and underbidding at any point in the month, Wahi’s Market Pulse tool provides readings based on the past 30 days of transactions.