Competition for GTA Homes is Down Despite June Rate Cut

With active listings at a multi-year high, the Greater Toronto Area real estate market continued to see competition among homebuyers soften in June.

By Josh Sherman | 2 minute read

Wahi ranks the GTA’s top overbidding neighbourhoods according to where there are the biggest differences between asking and selling prices for homes.

The share of Greater Toronto Area neighbourhoods in overbidding territory declined in June for the third consecutive month despite a much-anticipated interest-rate cut from the Bank of Canada.

Out of the 300 GTA neighbourhoods where there were at least five home sales last month, just 27% were in overbidding territory, according to Wahi’s latest Market Pulse Report. That’s down from 36% in May and 39% in April, when the downward trend began. The lion’s share (71%) were in underbidding territory, with an additional 2% selling at-asking. Each month, Wahi compares differences between list and sold prices to gauge market competition.

Out of the 300 GTA neighbourhoods where there were at least five home sales last month, just 27% were in overbidding territory, according to Wahi’s latest Market Pulse Report. That’s down from 36% in May and 39% in April, when the downward trend began. The lion’s share (71%) were in underbidding territory, with an additional 2% selling at-asking. Each month, Wahi compares differences between list and sold prices to gauge market competition.

“One 25-basis-point rate cut is not enough to jolt more life into a housing market that faces affordability challenges and a pile up of listings,” says Wahi CEO Benjy Katchen. He notes that there were 24,000 active listings on the market last month, the most in several years. “Buyers who are shopping have more selection than they have at any time in the past five years, so it’s no surprise that bidding competition is subdued,” Katchen adds.

Only 8 GTA Neighbourhoods Are in Overbidding Territory for Condos  

While single-family homes continued to see significantly more bidding activity than condos — a trend that began in February — the gap between the two market segments narrowed in June. Looking only at single-family homes, including detached, semi-detached, and townhouses, 39% of neighbourhoods were in overbidding territory, down from a slight majority (53%) in May. Meanwhile, just 7% of neighbourhoods were in overbidding territory for condos, compared to 11% in May. That translates to eight neighbourhoods overall.

In the past, Wahi has observed a correlation between interest rate expectations and bidding competition. For instance, in the wake of back-to-back rate pauses in March and April of 2023, the share of overbidding neighbourhoods soared in May, rising to 68%, up from 57%. But when the BoC resumed hiking rates in June, the trend reversed, dropping from 62% to 38% between June and July.

The Top 5 GTA Overbidding Neighbourhoods in June 2024 

As was the case in May when looking at all property types together, the majority of the top five overbidding neighbourhoods, which are ranked by the median overbid amount in dollars, were located in York Region (Doncrest, Rouge Woods, Royal Orchard, and Milliken Mills West). Leading neighbourhoods for overbidding generally had lower price points than those that were most underbid.

The Top 5 GTA Underbidding Neighbourhoods in June 2024 

Last month, there was a shift in the composition of the top underbidding neighbourhoods. While May saw three pricier Oakville neighbourhoods make the top five, June saw the emergence of two Peel region neighbourhoods, including Mineola, which ranked first, and Huttonville, in third place.

How Wahi Ranks Overbidding and Underbidding Neighbourhoods

At the end of each month, Wahi compares the differences between median list and sold prices to determine whether neighbourhoods are in overbidding or underbidding territory, excluding those neighbourhoods with fewer than five transactions in a given month. A total of 300 neighbourhoods out of the GTA’s approximately 400 met this threshold in June, a decrease of two neighbourhoods from May. Data is sourced from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board and Information Technology Systems Ontario.

The top overbidding and underbidding neighbourhoods are ranked by the median overbid or underbid amount. The median overbid and underbid amounts are calculated by subtracting the list price from the sold price of each individual listing in a given neighbourhood. These are then ranked by the median of all subtractions and presented as the median overbid or underbid amount. For the latest data on overbidding and underbidding at any point in the month, Wahi’s Market Pulse tool provides readings based on the past 30 days of transactions.