2024 Wahi GTA Housing Snapshot Report

Early expectations for a rebound in the Greater Toronto Area’s housing market in Spring 2024 didn’t materialize. The usual seasonal upswing in sales activity was cut short, with the number of homes changing hands declining on a year-over-year basis by the normally busy month of May.

Midway through the year’s second half, the Greater Toronto Area housing market began showing more signs of life following several rate cuts from the Bank of Canada. The rate cuts brought some affordability relief for homebuyers and existing owners, but not enough to spark a major turnaround. The median sale price including all housing types remained below last year’s level, while sales were roughly flat.

On a regional level, the City of Toronto was the only submarket where the median sale price increased, although barely. Meanwhile, Durham and Halton were the lone submarkets to see sales increase from the previous year.

For homebuyers who did take the leap in 2024, there was plenty of choice. The number of homes actively listed on the market remained at a historically high level above 20,000 from May onwards. Buyers were able to shop around and often get their home for below the listed price.

The condo market was hit hardest. Condo sales were down 5% while the number of single-family homes changing hands in the GTA edged upwards 2%. On the pricing front, condos posted a 3% decline, surpassing the 2% drop in the single-family home segment. Condos also took nine days longer to sell on average.

Home Sales Trends

Single-family home and condo sales followed a similar pattern this year with activity ramping up towards the fourth quarter.

After a sluggish start, condo sales in the GTA also surged to the highest level in three years this fall (September, October, and November).

Home Price Trends

Prices are where the GTA’s single-family home and condo markets have most noticeably diverged. The prices for single-family homes have generally shown greater resilience than condos, picking up steam in the fall real estate market before the usual slowdown into the winter holidays.

Although listings have remained elevated in both segments of the market, condo inventories have reached all-time highs, putting greater downward pressure on prices. Another factor contributing to supply is the record number of new units being completed by developers. Some of these units are appearing on the resale market as investors look to offload their properties amid higher interest rates and falling rents in the GTA.

Community Spotlight

Wahi drilled down into the market data at the neighbourhood and municipal level to identify hyper-local trends including the most- and least-affordable communities, most popular by search volume on Wahi, and more.

It took longer for homes to sell in 86% of neighbourhoods across the GTA in the third quarter of the year compared to Q3 2023, but homes changed hands at a rapid fire rate in select pockets.

Just three of the nine fastest-selling neighbourhoods in the Greater Toronto Area were located outside the City of Toronto.

Other key findings:

• While the majority of the fastest-selling neighbourhoods were in the City of Toronto, they were located outside the core in lower-density communities where single-family homes are concentrated. This aligns with the results of Wahi’s Great Canadian Dream Home Survey, which found that most Ontarians still prefer single-family homes over condos.
• All but two neighbourhoods had median sale prices above $1 million, making them generally more expensive than the slowest-selling neighbourhoods (those with the highest average days on market). This price trend likely reflects the softness in the GTA condo market, since neighbourhoods with lower median prices are more likely to have a higher share of condos, which in turn are taking longer to sell in general and drive up the average days on market overall.
• In Q3, condo listings stayed on the market for an average of 33 days versus 25 for single-family homes.

Overbidding and Underbidding Trends

Every month, Wahi compares the differences between median list and sold prices to determine whether neighbourhoods are in overbidding or underbidding territory, excluding those with fewer than five transactions. For much of the year, the majority of the GTA’s approximately 400 neighbourhoods have seen prices bid down. As of November, 91% of GTA neighbourhoods were in underbidding territory up from 88% in October. Bidding activity surged during the spring market before retreating. Note that a variety of factors can influence overbidding and underbidding activity. For instance, in addition to seasonality, sellers may list their homes for lower prices in hopes of sparking a bidding war.

Highlights:

• Bidding activity peaked in the GTA in March with 43% of neighbourhoods landing in overbidding territory.
• Subsequent rate cuts from the Bank of Canada did not spark a significant increase in bidding activity through the second half of the year.
• While the March peak was up from the same time last year — when 35% of neighbourhoods were overbid — it fell considerably short of last year’s high of 68%, which was reached in May.

Percentage of GTA Homes Selling Above, Below, and At-Asking Price: November 2024

Wahi also looks at the percentage of listings overall that sell above, below, and at-asking regardless of neighbourhood.

The top five overbidding and underbidding neighbourhoods are ranked each month by the median overbid or underbid amount. The median overbid and underbid amounts are calculated by subtracting the list price from the sold price of each listing in a neighbourhood. These are then ranked by the median of all subtractions and presented as the median overbid or underbid amount.

At the neighbourhood level, there wasn’t a runaway leader for overbidding this year. Five neighbourhoods made three appearances each in the monthly top five for overbidding through the first 11 months of the year. This stands in contrast to 2023, when Berczy Village, in Markham, was the outright leader having entered the top five seven times in 10 months.

For the second year running, Eastlake most consistently appeared in the monthly top five underbidding neighbourhoods in the GTA (10 times). A higher concentration of new custom houses — which due to their unique features may be harder to price — could be behind the overbidding trend.

Top GTA Communities for Family-Sized 3-Bedroom Homes

Condo-Parking Costs Around Toronto

GTA Communities With the Highest Potential Basement Rental Income

The highest potential monthly rental income is only part of the investment equation.

For each GTA community, Wahi also looked at annualized rental yields (the median monthly asking rent, multiplied by 12) as a percentage of the local median home price.

While Oshawa’s median monthly rent of $1,875 was the third-lowest in the GTA, the city also had the lowest median sale price in the region by more than $200,000.

Therefore, added together, 12 months of the median rent represented the highest share of the median sale price at (2.8%) of any GTA community.

Seven other communities had a yearly rental yield greater than 2% of the median sale price:

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