Only 2 of These Ontario Cities Are Still in Overbidding Territory

The cities of Cambridge and Kitchener are exceptions to a widespread regional trend of homes selling below asking during the fall housing market.

By Josh Sherman | 2 minute read

Two southern Ontario cities are continuing to see stronger bidding activity on available homes for sale even amid a fall cooldown.

All but two of southern Ontario’s 10 largest cities outside of the Greater Toronto Area were in underbidding territory last month, new analysis from digital real estate platform Wahi suggests.

Both overbidding outliers in September were located within the Regional Municipality of Waterloo: the cities of Cambridge and Kitchener, respectively. (The City of Waterloo was neither underbid nor overbid, with homes selling at asking for a median sale price of $744,500; however, the City of Waterloo’s population put it just outside of the 10 largest markets that Wahi examined.)

“The effects of higher interest rates are being felt in real estate markets across Southern Ontario,” says Wahi CEO Benjy Katchen. “That said, for homebuyers who are able to afford the higher monthly mortgage payments in the near term, now could be a great time to potentially purchase a home due to having a greater selection of properties for sale and potentially being able to cut a sharper deal than just a few months ago.” adds Katchen.

To identify overbidding and underbidding housing markets, Wahi compares the differences between median list and sold prices for all types of homes, including condo units and houses. 

During the same month last year, the 10 most populous southern Ontario housing markets were all in underbidding territory, led by Barrie, Guelph, and Hamilton. Median sale prices in these markets at the time were bid down by 3% compared to the median list prices. 

The latest data from Wahi provide new insights into how the trend of underbidding is present well beyond the Greater Toronto Area, where 209 neighbourhoods (74%) were underbid in September. The share of GTA neighbourhoods in underbidding territory has been climbing since June, when 35% of neighbourhoods were selling below asking.

Though that trend has been ongoing, September saw the smallest month-over-month increase in the share of underbidding neighbourhoods this year, edging up by three percentage points to 74%. Between July and August, the share of GTA underbidding neighbourhoods soared by 14 percentage points.

“Make sure you really understand the data and bidding dynamics in your desired area,” says Katchen to prospective homebuyers. “You might also want to consider looking outside the GTA. Not only are the vast majority of the biggest southern Ontario cities outside the GTA in underbidding territory, they’re also considerably more affordable.”