Canadian Home Prices Stabilize as Major Markets Remain in a Slump

The RPS-Wahi House Price Index was up 1% on a year-over-year basis in June, but three major Canadian markets continue to lag the others.

By Josh Sherman | 4 minute read

The RPS-Wahi House Price Index, created by Real Property Solutions and presented by Wahi, is a trusted indicator of Canadian home price trends.

Despite three consecutive months of decelerating growth between March and May, in June, the RPS-Wahi House Price Index remained up 1% on a year-over-year basis. This matches the previous national index reading for May, which represented the smallest annual rate of growth in any month since August of 2023, according to Wahi, RPS’s official partner in presenting the index.

“It is unclear whether the Canadian housing market is bottoming out just yet, but there were some green shoots in June,” says RPS-Wahi President and CEO Benjy Katchen.

“Real estate boards in Toronto and Vancouver both reported observing signs of recovery in June, and these have been two of the hardest-hit markets in the country,” he continues.

The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board notes that on a seasonally adjusted basis, home sales improved from May while listings declined, which is suggestive of a “tightening trend.”

Although Vancouver home sales were down 10% annually in June, the decline was a considerable improvement from May, when the number of homes changing hands was down about 20% year-over-year, according to the Greater Vancouver REALTORS®.

“At the same time as some positive indicators are emerging in home sales data, Canadian consumer confidence edged higher, which could support homebuyer intentions,” adds Katchen.

Sluggish conditions persist in major condo markets, particularly in Toronto and Vancouver, which have been holding back the pace of growth at the national level. This pattern held in June and is reflected in price trends by property type.

Detached home and row/townhouse values were up year-over-year by 3% and 2%, respectively, and semi-detached home values edged slightly lower by 1%, according to the RPS-Wahi House Price Index.

In stark contrast, condo apartment values registered a sharp 7% decline, among the largest annual drops since the RPS-Wahi House Price Index was established in 2005.

Home Prices up in 10 of 13 Major Canadian Housing Markets

In addition to the national RPS-Wahi House Price Index, which is based on an up-to-six-month rolling average of actual home values in 1,000 cities and towns across Canada, the indices for 13 major metro areas were analyzed.

Home values in 10 out of 13 cities surpassed levels reached last year. Quebec City once again led with 13% annual appreciation, followed by Regina and Winnipeg, which were tied at 10%.

These top-performing markets share a few common characteristics. They are generally more affordable and have insufficient supply to meet current demand. They also have economies that are among the most insulated from possible negative effects from U.S. tariffs, according to the Canadian Chamber of Commerce’s U.S. Tariff Exposure Index.

Three cities continued to lag far behind the others, with home values down by 4% on a year-over-year basis in Hamilton and Vancouver and 3% in Toronto.

The declines in Toronto and Vancouver have much to do with weakness in the condo segment, particularly in the latter, where the high-rise market is in recessionary territory.

Hamilton, where home sales recently sunk to a 15-year low for the month of June, is a market with high exposure to U.S. tariffs. The city’s economy is heavily reliant on the steel industry, and buyers there may be taking a wait-and-see approach regarding the ongoing trade conflict with the U.S.

As the ripple effects of new condo inventory, tariffs, and other factors such as challenging affordability conditions work their way through the Canadian housing market, the RPS-Wahi House Price Index will continue to be a leading indicator. Recent appraisals are one of the data sources for the index, which also uses other sales data, making it the most timely indicator of prices.

About the RPS-Wahi House Price Index (HPI)

The RPS-Wahi Home Price Index is the most comprehensive source for house price data in Canada and includes the median house price dollar values and extensive additional data by property type from a national to the local level. For more information, the complete methodology is available.

Long-Term Price Trends

The RPS-Wahi House Price Index is based on the latest monthly actual home values in 1,000 towns and cities across the country.

The index shows how property values have changed over time, relative to a base period (Jan. 2005 = 100). An HPI value of 300 means property values have tripled (on a smoothed, adjusted basis) since 2005.

The HPI does not indicate the actual price of a property. It demonstrates how prices have moved relative to the base period. 

Market Momentum

A rising index indicates an upward price trend. A falling index suggests price softening or correction. Since the HPI smooths noise and filters out outliers, it gives a more stable, reliable picture of pricing trends than monthly medians.

The HPI is based on an up-to-six-month rolling average, so it does not reflect short-term volatility, such as one-off surges in prices from luxury sales. All figures are rounded to the nearest whole number.