Canadian Housing Market Begins 2026 Slow and Steady

Outside of the Toronto and Vancouver regions, Canada’s housing market started the year on solid ground in January, according to the RPS-Wahi House Price Index.

By Josh Sherman | 4 minute read

The RPS-Wahi House Price Index, created by Real Property Solutions and presented by Wahi, is a trusted indicator of Canadian home price trends.

Wahi, a leading Canadian real estate platform, and Real Property Solutions (RPS), the foremost Canadian provider of property valuation services, today released their monthly house price index for January 2026.

In January, the national RPS-Wahi House Price Index — which is based on the latest monthly actual home values in 1,000 towns and cities across the country — fell by 2% on a year-over-year basis. 

The RPS-Wahi House Price Index had been in positive territory since July of 2023, when it tumbled by 4%, but began flattening at the midway point of last year. Despite this cooling trend overall, the market has been characterized by considerable regional divergences, and some areas continue to see exuberant price growth.

“Although the January reading of the RPS-Wahi House Price Index represents the largest annual decline in two and a half years, most urban centres outside of the Toronto and Vancouver regions are showing signs of stability,” says RPS-Wahi Economist Ryan McLaughlin. “In some cases, such as Quebec City and certain markets in the Prairies, markets are even gaining momentum,” he continues.

The trend of annualized declines for all property types — which only emerged towards the end of 2025 — spilled over into the new year. Prior to December, detached homes had been a holdout, remaining in positive territory on a year-over-year basis. In January, drops in condo values once again exceeded those for single-family homes, including detached, semi-detached, and row/townhouses.

The national condo price softness is an ongoing reflection of price corrections underway in the Toronto and Vancouver markets. Conversely, in Montreal, the country’s second-largest metro area, condo prices have been accelerating, and they have remained relatively consistent across several other markets. 

Most Major Canadian Housing Markets Remained Stable in January 2026  

The Canadian housing market began 2026 in much the same way it ended the previous year. In January, prices once again declined annually in four of the 13 major metro areas that were analyzed in addition to the national RPS-Wahi House Price Index: Toronto, Hamilton, Vancouver, and Victoria.

While the pace of annual depreciation in Victoria intensified compared with the previous month — overtaking Vancouver in the process — the larger decrease comes on the heels of what was a quiet end to the year for the western Canadian market. Otherwise, the Victoria market has been “moving sideways” for much of the past three years.

Current market conditions suggest sustained stability for Victoria. “It doesn’t feel like we’re grossly oversupplied, and, if you go back historically, we’re still short of what was considered a pretty balanced market in Victoria,” says Dirk VanderWal, director and committee chair of the Victoria Real Estate Board.

VanderWal expects more buyers to dip their toes in the market in the coming months. However, it remains unclear how much pent-up demand from would-be buyers — who may have been sidelined due to economic uncertainty last year — will materialize.

In the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s recently published Housing Market Outlook 2026, the national housing agency forecasts Victoria sales will rebound as the year goes on, supporting slight price increases.

The markets that have begun the year with the strongest growth — specifically, Quebec City, Regina, and Montreal — are all anticipated to see prices push higher through the year, as per the CMHC forecast.

Cities in Quebec, as well as secondary markets in the prairies such as Regina and Sasksatoon, have continued to benefit from demand drivers including relative affordability and consistent employment rates. 

About the RPS-Wahi House Price Index (HPI)

The RPS-Wahi Home Price Index is the most comprehensive source for house price data in Canada and includes the median house price dollar values and extensive additional data by property type from a national to the local level. For more information, the complete methodology is available.

Long-Term Price Trends

The RPS-Wahi House Price Index is based on the latest monthly actual home values in 1,000 towns and cities across the country.

The index shows how property values have changed over time, relative to a base period (Jan. 2005 = 100). An HPI value of 300 means property values have tripled (on a smoothed, adjusted basis) since 2005.

The HPI does not indicate the actual price of a property. It demonstrates how prices have moved relative to the base period. 

Market Momentum

A rising index indicates an upward price trend. A falling index suggests price softening or correction. Since the HPI smooths noise and filters out outliers, it gives a more stable, reliable picture of pricing trends than monthly medians.

The HPI is based on an up-to-six-month rolling average, so it does not reflect short-term volatility, such as one-off surges in prices from luxury sales. All figures are rounded to the nearest whole number.