Lack of “Missing Middle” Homes Drives People out of Toronto

More and more Torontonians are ditching the big city in search of other places where ground-oriented homes are more affordable.

By Josh Sherman | 5 minute read

Townhouses, stacked townhouses and other forms of low-rise apartments such as duplexes are part of the “missing middle.”

A shortage of affordable low-rise housing is contributing to an exodus of Toronto residents into other parts of the province, suggests a new report, and researchers expect the trend to continue.

Within a six-year period ending on July 1, 2022, Toronto saw a net outflow of 228,169 intraprovincial migrants, according to Toronto Metropolitan University’s Centre for Urban Research and Land Development (CUR).

Whereas interprovincial migration captures moves across provincial borders, the intraprovincial figure is based on the difference between the number of people who moved to Toronto from other parts of the province and the number of people who left the city for elsewhere in Ontario. Basically, it means more Ontarians are leaving Toronto than entering it. (It does not capture immigration, a major growth driver that is forecast to help bring the GTA’s population to more than 10 million by 2046, up from 7.1 million in 2021.)

“The central part of Toronto attracts a lot of people — particularly younger people — but there are other people moving out, and I suspect the people who are moving out are looking for lower-density housing and they’re more likely to be couples with kids,” Frank Clayton, a senior research fellow at the CUR and co-author of the report, tells Wahi. “Middle-income people are the ones moving out, so that has significant implications for our society — and Toronto,” he adds, mentioning heightened wealth disparity. 

Overall, Toronto lost more residents to intraprovincial migration than any other Ontario census division that recorded a net decline from 2017 to 2022:

• Toronto (-228,169)
• Peel (-151,282)
• York (-18.255)
• Essex (-1,513)
• Cochrane (-1,279)
• Thunder Bay (-1,157)
• Kenora (-439)

The CUR report points out that the three largest net losses were found within the GTA (Toronto, Peel, and York) and provides insights into how high housing costs and the limited availability of certain types of homes underlies the trend. “The deterioration in the affordability of single-detached and semi-detached houses and the low production of potential substitutes like townhouses, stacked townhouses and other forms of low-rise apartments (so-called missing middle housing) within the GTA are likely contributors to these population flows,” reads the report, also co-authored by Nigel Alphonso, a CUR research assistant. 

The Missing Middle  

The idea of the “missing middle” has rapidly gained traction as a possible solution to the housing-affordability crisis, one that is gripping major urban centres across the continent. American architect Daniel Parolek coined the term in 2010 to describe housing types that fall somewhere between detached single-family houses and mid-rise buildings. Missing middle advocates say local zoning policies too often interfere with the construction of these housing types, instead protecting existing single-family properties from even minimal forms of intensification or encouraging much denser development. 

That may lead some homebuyers who can’t afford a detached home in an urban centre but who don’t want to live in high-rise buildings to set their sights on different housing markets where lower-density forms of housing are still within their budgets. “Governments can control the amount and type of housing built in specific municipalities. However, they cannot prevent people from moving elsewhere to search for the kind and price of housing they prefer,” the report explains.

In response to housing affordability challenges around the province, the Ontario government aims to get 1.5 million homes built by 2031. The commitment comes with municipal targets, including 285,000 new units for Toronto. “Unfortunately,” the report goes on to say, “these targets are for total units only and not by type.”

“To the extent the targets are met, the new housing will mostly be mid- and high-rise apartments rather than the low-density and missing middle housing forms that many households demand,” the report’s co-authors write. “Thus, we anticipate the net outflow of residents from the GTA will persist over the next decade.”

In a statement to Wahi, a spokesperson for Ontario’s Ministry of Municipal Affairs says that “the government is considering every possible option to get more homes built faster so more Ontarians can find a home that meets their needs and budget.”

The spokesperson notes that Ontario’s housing targets are based on current population numbers and growth trends over the past decade. “We are also removing barriers to building more ‘missing-middle’ housing by allowing up to three residential units ‘as of right’ on residential lots and building more homes near transit,” the statement continues.

If more missing middle housing is built, it could help stop Toronto’s “significant” population bleed because it’s a much closer substitute to single-family homes than units in condo buildings. “People in the GTA have this big, big thing for ground-related housing, and whether you want a place for your kids to play, or you want a place for your dog or you want a place for your barbecue, it’s just something that’s embedded,” Clayton tells Wahi. “The main takeaway is that we’ve got to produce the kinds of housing that people want.”

So Where Are Torontonians Moving?  

The data don’t indicate exactly where Torontonians are relocating. However, looking at the numbers, which were pulled from Statistics Canada, provides clues. 

Each of the five census divisions with the biggest net gains from intraprovincial migration are located within or adjacent to the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area and are captured in a broader southern Ontario region known as the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH):

• Simcoe (+60,576)
• Durham (+45,560)
• Niagara (+28,394)
• Halton (+19,629)
• Middlesex (+16,380)

“Durham region is still gaining people because Durham region is the cheapest,” says Clayton of the census division that gained the second-highest number of intraprovincial migrants. “Durham has lots of land still… and they’re starting to get the transit connections, which they didn’t have before,” he adds, noting the Highway 407 extension and improving regional service from GO Transit.

Clayton suggests that it’s fair to assume that many of the people leaving Toronto are ending up in Durham, Simcoe (which includes Barrie), and Niagara. However, he notes that the intraprovincial migration inflows to these places in and around the GTA hardly account for all of the city of Toronto’s losses. That means people are moving farther and farther away from the province’s capital, says Clayton: “It’s kind of a wave effect.”