Here are the Hottest Spots for Canadian Real Estate

While the country’s largest local housing market has been in the lurch, in major western Canadian cities, prices and sales are soaring higher.

By Josh Sherman | 3 minute read

Generationally high interest rates be damned — real estate markets in the Prairies are continuing to sizzle, according to April home sales data from the Canadian Real Estate Association.

“Regionally, prices are generally sliding sideways across most of the country. The exceptions remain Calgary, Edmonton, and Saskatoon, where prices have steadily ticked higher since the beginning of last year,” according to CREA’s latest report.

The benchmark price of a Calgary home soared about 10% on a year-over-year basis to $603,700, while Edmonton had a 5.4% annual increase to the benchmark price bringing it to $397,200. In Saskatoon, the benchmark price was $398,600, up by close to 7%. These gains stand in contrast to Toronto and Vancouver, where benchmark prices were relatively flat compared to the same time last year. In Toronto, the benchmark price was $1,156,167, down less than 1%, and in Vancouver it was $1,205,800, up 2.8%. 

Less Competition and More Choice for Toronto and Vancouver Homebuyers

Many buyers in Canada’s priciest markets have been standing on the sidelines, which has had knock-on effects for supply. For one, new listings flooded the Vancouver and Toronto markets, rising 64.7% from year-ago levels in the former and 47.2% in the latter.

These skyrocketing listings are giving homebuyers more choice. They could help encourage the Bank of Canada to begin cutting interest rates, suggests BMO Chief Economic Douglas Porter in a response to the CREA data. “For the Bank of Canada, a calmer housing market will provide a bit more comfort that some small rate trims won’t spark a major flare-up in prices,” he writes. “At the margin, cooler home prices and more ample listings slightly increase the chances of rate relief in coming months. When it comes to Canadian housing, calm is good.”

But there are also reports that sluggish sales have led to developers shelving local condo projects, which could create a longer-term supply crunch, experts warn. According to Urbanation, 60 developments have been put on hold across the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area since 2022.

Economics and Migration Support Calgary, Edmonton, and Saskatoon’s Hot Spots

Generally, the piping-hot market conditions in Calgary and Edmonton are evolving as expected. They were forecasted earlier this year in a forward-looking Calgary Real Estate Board report. International and interprovincial migration to Alberta has helped stoke demand as the province’s comparatively lower home prices and job market, propped up by the natural-resource industry, attract newcomers.

Wahi’s own recent analysis further drilled down into the trend, finding that nearly half of Calgary’s neighbourhoods were in overbidding territory in the first quarter of the year, suggesting frothy competition at the local level. “Whether it’s buyers from other provinces attracted by Calgary’s relative affordability or locals benefitting from Alberta’s resilient economy, demand remains strong for Calgary real estate,” said Wahi CEO Benjy Katchen last month. Similar Wahi analysis found the share of GTA neighbourhoods in overbidding territory slipped to 39% in April, down from 43% in the previous month.

Nationally, the benchmark home price was $719,400, matching March and tracking 0.9% lower than in April 2023, according to CREA. Meanwhile, the number of homes changing hands climbed 10.1% over the same period, catching some market-watchers off guard. “One small surprise in today’s results was the… rise in sales activity, especially given soggy results in Toronto and Vancouver,” writes Porter, the BMO economist, in the report.

While sales slouched by 5% in Toronto and inched upwards by 3.3% in Vancouver, the activity in the major Prairies markets surged. Edmonton home sales spiked by an eye-popping 54.9%, while Calgary home sales shot up by 7%. Even in the smaller market of Saskatoon, year-over-year sales skyrocketed 29%. So what’s going on there? “Economic growth, employment gains, and record population numbers continue to support strong housing demand in Saskatchewan, resulting in a tenth consecutive month of above-average sales in April,” says Chris Guérette, CEO of the Saskatchewan REALTORS® Association, in a statistics release.

“These factors are, without question, boosting housing demand – as evidenced through rising sales in the resale market and falling vacancy rates in the rental market.”