8 Out of 10 GTA Condos Are Now Selling Below Asking

The share of Greater Toronto Area condos that are selling for less than the asking price has been creeping up in recent months, reaching 80% in December.

By Josh Sherman | 3 minute read

If you’re looking to get a deal on a condo in the Greater Toronto Area, now may be the time with so many transacting at prices less than they’re listed at.

The vast majority of condo buyers in the Greater Toronto Area last month paid less than the list price for units, according to new analysis from digital real estate platform Wahi.

Overall, 80% of existing condos that changed hands across the GTA in December 2024 sold for less than asking, up from 78% in November but down from 84% a year ago. This does not include pre-construction units.

“GTA condo buyers have been able to negotiate lower prices in part because supply levels remain high,” says Wahi CEO Benjy Katchen. As new buildings are completed and begin occupancy, some investors may continue to list units on the resale market, adding to existing supply, he notes. “There are also fewer condo buyers in the market, so there’s less bidding competition,” Katchen adds.

A high share of single-family homes are also selling below asking, although not quite to the extent of the condo segment. The single-family home segment is also showing signs of tightening. In December, 71% of single-family dwellings, which include detached and semi-detached homes as well as row and townhouses, sold for less than the list price. That’s a decline from 73% in November and 79% at the same time in 2023.

“As with condos, the number of single-family homes available for sale right now remains high compared to the long-run norm, but there’s more buying competition for houses,” notes Katchen.

For one, the cap on insured mortgages recently increased from $1 million to $1.5 million. That means more buyers can potentially purchase single-family homes without a 20% downpayment. The previous cap meant that many detached and semi-detached homes were out of reach even if a buyer had the necessary income. “Needing to save up $250,000 or more for a detached house was unrealistic for many households,” notes Katchen. 

More GTA Neighbourhoods in Underbidding Territory in December 2024

Wahi also tracks bidding activity at the neighbourhood level each month. In December, 93% of GTA neighbourhoods with at least five home sales were in underbidding territory, up from 91% in November. An additional 6% were in overbidding territory and 1% were selling at asking in December.

When looking only at single-family homes, the share of underbidding neighbourhoods drops to 86%. Meanwhile, 99% of neighbourhoods were in underbidding territory for condos. The lone exception was Flemingdon Park, in Toronto’s North York community. With a median condo price of $512,500, it’s one of the region’s more affordable neighbourhoods. For comparison, the GTA-wide median price of a condo in December was $635,000.

The Top 5 GTA Underbidding Neighbourhoods in December 2024

The Oakville neighbourhood of Eastlake — the most consistently underbid neighbourhood in the GTA  once again finished the year in the top five for underbidding, occupying the top spot. The neighbourhood has appeared in the top five in 18 of the past 19 months, only missing the list this past September. One local expert previously told Wahi that Eastlake was often underbid because of a high concentration of custom homes for which finding comparables to price them against was difficult. Like most of the other top underbidding neighbourhoods in December, Eastlake also had a higher price point. Since neighbourhoods are ranked by the median underbid amount, neighbourhoods with higher prices are more likely to top the list.

The Top 5 GTA Overbidding Neighbourhoods in December 2024 

Two of the five most overbid neighbourhoods in December were also the most consistently overbid neighbourhoods in 2024. Toronto’s Danforth neighbourhood and Milliken Mills West, in Markham, were each in the top five for overbidding on four separate occasions this year. Local Realtors tell Wahi that convenient locations and more affordable price points have driven demand in these neighbourhoods even amid overall cooler market conditions.

The remaining three neighbourhoods in the December top five all had a median sale price below $1 million, suggesting that affordability is a factor in these areas as well. 

How Wahi Ranks Overbidding and Underbidding Neighbourhoods

At the end of each month, Wahi compares the differences between median list and sold prices to determine whether neighbourhoods are in overbidding or underbidding territory, excluding those neighbourhoods with fewer than five transactions in a given month. A total of 250 neighbourhoods out of the GTA’s approximately 400 met this threshold in December, down from 295 in November. Data is sourced from Information Technology Systems Ontario (ITSO) and the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB).

The top overbidding and underbidding neighbourhoods are ranked by the median overbid or underbid amount. The median overbid and underbid amounts are calculated by subtracting the list price from the sold price of each individual listing in a given neighbourhood. These are then ranked by the median of all subtractions and presented as the median overbid or underbid amount. For the latest data on overbidding and underbidding at any point in the month, Wahi’s Market Pulse tool provides readings based on the past 30 days of transactions.