B.C.’s Fraser Valley Sees Housing Sales Lag

The number of active listings in the region rise to decade-high levels as buyers remain on the sidelines.

By Brett Surbey | 4 minute read

Buyers remain hesitant in the traditionally hot market of Fraser Valley, leading to ballooning inventory levels and a decline in sales.

Winter may soon come to the Fraser Valley’s historically hot real estate market despite multiple interest cuts by the Bank of Canada.

According to recent data from the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board (FVREB), the Valley is seeing inventory climb to levels not seen in a decade. As of September, all regions across the region  — including Abbotsford, South Surrey, White Rock, Mission, Langley and other areas — had a total of 9,045 active listings compared to only 6,532 in 2023. That’s a staggering increase of 38.5% year-over-year (YoY). 

Lagging sales due to hesitant buyers are the main contributing factor to these rises, as only 982 sales were reported last month. “Seasonally adjusted sales were the second slowest in a decade in the Fraser Valley,” the report states. Single-family detached homes took an average of 35 days to sell, townhouses 30, and apartments 37 days. Overall, sales are 30% below the 10-year average, according to the FVREB’s release.

Sluggish sales and high supply have put downward pressure on benchmark prices. Across the entire Fraser Valley, the benchmark price for a detached home has fallen 1.5% since August and 1.3% since September 2023, and is now sitting at just over $1.5 million. Townhomes are down to $834,400, a drop of 1.6% YoY.

“With three rate cuts already and more expected before the end of the year, buyers are watching the market closely to time their purchasing decisions,” says Jeff Chadha, Chair of the FVREB.

“The current conditions should favour buyers, particularly in the detached market, however, until we start to see some movement in asking prices, properties will continue to sit on the market for extended periods as both buyers and sellers await the next rate announcement,” he adds.

Buyers have good reason for timing their purchases strategically. Some of Canada’s Big 6 banks have adjusted their interest rate forecasts in the past month, calling for faster and more pronounced cuts. CIBC, for instance, thinks that the Feds could start cutting 50 basis points (0.5%) at a time as early as December, leading to a Q4 policy rate of 3.50%. 

Buyers aren’t on the sidelines in Fraser Valley simply waiting for better rates — affordability is a key factor as well. “We know the demand is there among Fraser Valley buyers,” says Baldev Gill, CEO of the FVREB.

“After months on the sidelines, buyers want to get into the market but many also need to sell before they can buy. When you factor in affordability challenges and the anticipation of more interest rate cuts, we are seeing persistent weakness in the market,” Gill explains.

Vancouver also seeing buyer hesitation and supply jumps

Despite multiple rate cuts, other areas across B.C. are also seeing buyer trepidation like the Fraser Valley. Metro Vancouver’s sales are down to 1,852 (3.8% YoY as of last month), which is 26% under the 10-year average of 2,502 sales. According to the Greater Vancouver Real Estate Board’s (GVREB) report, these numbers are, “suggesting recent reductions in borrowing costs are having a limited effect in spurring demand so far.”

Vancouver is also sitting at high inventory levels, with new listings up 12.8% since September 2023 — 16.7% above the 10-year seasonal average of 5,266. “With some buyers choosing to stay on the sidelines, inventory levels have sustained the healthy gains achieved over the course of this year, providing much more selection to anyone searching for a home,” Andrew Lis, GVREB’s Director of Economics says.

Much like the Fraser Valley, Vancouver’s high supply and slowing sales have led to price reductions across the board. The area’s benchmark price index fell 1.8% YoY, and now sits at $1,179,700, a 1.4% decrease since August 2024.

“With all this choice available, prices have trended sideways for the past few months. The September figures, however, are now showing modest declines across all segments on a month- -over-month basis,” Lis states. “With two more policy rate decisions to go this year, and all signs pointing to further reductions, it’s not inconceivable that demand may still pick up later this fall should buyers step off the sidelines.”