Will Canadians Abandon U.S. Real Estate Because of Trump?

Canadians led all foreign buyers of U.S. real estate in 2024, but a more hostile political environment may reduce their appetite for American properties this year. 

By Josh Sherman | 3 minute read

There are rumblings that Canadians might not be so keen to buy secondary properties in the U.S.

The ongoing North American trade war could put a damper on Canadian investment in U.S. real estate, but don’t expect homebuyers from the Great White North to give up entirely on stateside property, market-watchers say.

Last year, Canadians were the largest group of foreign homebuyers in the U.S., accounting for 13% of non-resident purchasers, according to a previous report from the National Association of Realtors. While the Trump administration’s decision to slap tariffs on Canadian goods may sour the prospect of buying a home stateside for some, the U.S. should remain an attractive destination, particularly for so-called snowbirds who spend the winter down south — and especially as more time passes.

“The current tensions could very well impact Canadian buyers’ desire to purchase properties in the United States,” Matt Christopherson, director of business and consumer research at NAR, writes in an email response to Wahi.

“However, 50% of Canadian buyers purchase vacation homes, and the more affordable property prices in America continue to present an opportunity for Canadians to secure a personal vacation spot in warmer climates to escape the cold,” he continues.

In fact, 41% of the foreign homebuyers from Canada who purchased U.S. property between April 2023 and March 2024 settled in Florida, followed by Arizona (23%).

For Miles Zimbaluk, the founder and CEO of Canada to USA, which advises Canadians on moving to the U.S. as well as investing, the impact has been sharp and immediate. “We’re seeing a huge reduction in people buying,” he tells Wahi.

But politics is just one of “three big reasons” Canadians aren’t as enthusiastic about a home in America, he says. An unfavourable exchange rate, alongside rising real estate prices over the past decade, are also chilling demand. “Our sellers, probably 20-25% are selling for political reasons, they’re just not comfortable in the U.S any more, or that was the final straw for them,” he continues.

However, he doesn’t anticipate the situation to persist until the next election. Like NAR, he says warmer climes will attract some buyers back to the market — and likely sooner rather than later.  “I think people who have extra disposable income… still want to have a vacation home in a warm climate, and those that can handle the cost of it will still do it,” he says. “I don’t think the political thing will chase them away for too long.”

Although the other leading foreign homebuyers are also from countries engaged in the trade conflict (China and Mexico, respectively), Christopherson of NAR suggests demand from these countries will be steadier. That’s because buyers from China and Mexico are typically purchasing U.S. property for different reasons than Canadians.

“While the tariff announcements and updates can very well impact cross-border trade, they are less likely to hinder property investments from Chinese and Mexican buyers,” he says. “Mexican buyers are largely purchasing primary residences to fully move to the States, and Chinese buyers continue to see the investment potential, purchasing for a variety of uses while growing their investments.”

It remains to be seen which countries will get the upper hand in trade negotiations, but it appears the real winners may be U.S. homebuyers over the shorter term. With fewer Canadians seeking vacation properties across the Sun Belt, domestic buyers may be able to get better deals. “If we were to see fewer foreign buyers this year, this would simply provide more available inventory for the immense pent-up demand we know is present in the U.S. housing market,” says Christopherson. 

“While foreign buyers typically purchase different properties than the typical U.S. buyer, and at a higher price point, this would simply mean less competition.”