Will Canada’s Housing Market Finally Turn a New Leaf This Fall?

Wahi spoke to top economists to get their predictions for the Canadian housing market this fall. Here’s what they’re saying.

By Josh Sherman | 3 minute read

Since Canadian housing peaked several years ago the typically busier fall real estate market has been anything but.

Economists say the long-dormant Canadian housing market is showing some signs of improvement ahead of the fall homebuying season, but it won’t be enough for a return to normal, busier conditions historically associated with this time of year. 

“I think it’s going to look very much similar [to last fall.]” says Bryan Yu, chief economist of Central 1. “We’re largely looking at a pretty flat fall,” he tells Wahi.  

Although Scotiabank has yet to finalize the numbers for its next housing outlook, the bank’s director of forecasting agrees that this year’s fall market should be on the quieter side yet again — not least of all because of the latest trade spat between Canada and the U.S. 

“We would need demand to strengthen significantly before we see a significant and sustained rise in prices to start happening,” says Patrick Perrier, director of forecasting at Scotiabank. “The uncertainty would, I suspect, be a headwind for potential buyers,” he continues, referring to recently announced tariffs on Canadian imports to the U.S. and retaliatory measures from Ottawa.

The national sales-to-new listings ratio remains around 50%, which is closer to a buyer’s market than a seller’s, he notes, and that doesn’t include the pipeline of new housing. 

Although condo construction in Toronto and Vancouver has ground to a halt, projects launched around the time of the pandemic are still being completed, adding to unsold inventory levels. Elsewhere, in Alberta, housing starts soared to a 70-year high in 2025, and those units will be hitting the market in the coming months and years. “There’s a lot of supply coming in,” says Perrier. “Housing demand is not strong enough to fully absorb this new stream of units coming to the market,” he adds. 

Government incentives, such as Ontario’s HST rebate on new homes, have boosted new home sales somewhat, says Central 1’s Yu, but the supply overload — as well as softer rental-market conditions, which put less pressure on tenants to climb onto the property ladder — should result in softer market conditions.

“There are some signs that new listings are easing, but we also know that there’s quite a bit of new-home inventory that is still sitting there,” says Yu.

If there is a positive sign heading into the fall, it may be that the pace of price depreciation in the Canadian housing market has been waning in recent months. That could signal the bottom of the peak-to-trough cycle.

The RPS-Wahi House Price Index registered a 3% dip in July, in line with June and less than the 4% year-over-year decreases in late spring/early summer.

That may also encourage some homebuyers to get into the market. “Overall, prices seemingly have started to stabilize a bit more, and that might provide a little bit more optimism on the part of some buyers,” says Yu.