Fall Canadian Housing Market Begins With More Tariff Trouble

Canadian home prices fell 3% year-over-year in September 2026, according to RPS-Wahi House Price Index, but challenges deepen for markets heavily exposed to U.S. tariffs.

By Josh Sherman | 4 minute read

The RPS-Wahi House Price Index, created by Real Property Solutions and presented by Wahi, is a trusted indicator of Canadian home price trends.

Wahi, a leading Canadian real estate platform, and Real Property Solutions (RPS), the foremost Canadian provider of property valuation services, today released their price index for September 2026.

In September, the national RPS-Wahi House Price Index — which is based on the latest monthly actual home values in 1,000 towns and cities across the country — decreased by 3% on a year-over-year basis, unchanged from recent months. However, the national headline figure obscures larger price fluctuations, particularly in Ontario and B.C. and especially in secondary markets with less diversified economies and higher exposure to U.S. tariffs. 

“There’s a lot working against a rebound in the Canadian housing market this fall,” says RPS-Wahi Economist Ryan McLaughlin. “Not only do homebuyers have to contend with affordability challenges in the major markets, but fraught relations with our largest trading partner have resulted in layoffs in smaller, historically more affordable markets,” he adds.

As examples, McLaughlin points to job losses for steel workers in Sault Ste. Marie and auto workers in Windsor. “Even in places where large-scale layoffs have yet to materialize, the threat of job losses is enough to discourage some Canadians from making big-ticket purchases,” McLaughlin continues.  

Overall, prices are up or flat in seven out of 13 metro areas that RPS-Wahi analyzes in addition to the national index, led by Quebec City (10%), Regina (7%), and Montreal (6%). Extremely constrained supply in these markets has propped up property values this year, although more sellers are listing their homes in these metros, which could provide some relief.

As has been the case throughout the year, quieter conditions prevailed in Hamilton (-7%), Toronto (-6%), Vancouver (-5%) and Victoria (-5%). Consumer polling earlier this year suggests that economic uncertainty is a headwind for demand even in the most broad-based, multi-sector economies, such as Toronto and Vancouver. Yet in these metro areas other contributors to the downturn include the already-high cost of ownership and a glut of unsold condo units, both new and resale. “The threat of rising borrowing costs certainly doesn’t help with the recovery either,” adds McLaughlin.

Outlook for Tariff-Exposed Real Estate Market Darkens 

 
A separate comparison of 19 markets that the Canadian Chamber of Commerce identified as being particularly sensitive to the effects of tariffs tells a different story than the national index. In September, values in 14 out of these 19 tariff-exposed markets were down or flat compared to the same time a year ago. When trade tensions began simmering in early 2025, all 19 locales were growth markets.

Abbotsford, B.C., as well as Ontario’s Barrie, Hamilton, Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo, and Windsor have seen the most pronounced declines (-7%). As the epicenter of the Canadian automotive industry, Windsor in particular has been hit hard by the souring trade relationship with the U.S. It has the third-highest ranking on the commerce chamber’s U.S. Tariff Exposure Index. Only Calgary (0%) and Saint John (+3%) had higher exposure scores. Both of these markets have been undergoing a rebalancing act this year following strong price appreciation last year, but the general theme is of stabilization rather than outright correction. 

No Improvement for Multi-Family Home Prices in September 

 
Urban condo values still haven’t found their bottom yet, and that’s not just true of markets in southern Ontario and B.C.’s Lower Mainland, which have been undergoing multi-year price corrections that have considerable sway on the national index readings. This year, demand for multi-family homes has been pulling back in other regions, too, such as Calgary and Montreal, although not to the extent of, say, Toronto and Vancouver.

Unsurprisingly, looking at the national home price landscape by property type, multi-family homes once again suffered largest declines in September. Row/townhouse values fell by 7% on a year-over-year basis, and condo values declined by 6%. In comparison, the detached (-2%) and semi-detached (-2%) categories experienced more marginal price adjustments.

Any meaningful signs of recovery should emerge first in the single-family segment. As prices evolve, the RPS-Wahi House Price Index will continue to be a leading indicator. Recent appraisals are one of the data sources for the index, which also uses land registry and other sales data, making it the most timely indicator of prices.

About the RPS-Wahi House Price Index (HPI)

The RPS-Wahi House Price Index is the most comprehensive source for house price data in Canada and includes the median house price dollar values and extensive additional data by property type from a national to the local level. For more information, the complete methodology is available.

Long-Term Price Trends

The RPS-Wahi House Price Index is based on the latest monthly actual home values in 1,000 towns and cities across the country.

The index shows how property values have changed over time, relative to a base period (Jan. 2005 = 100). An HPI value of 300 means property values have tripled (on a smoothed, adjusted basis) since 2005.

The HPI does not indicate the actual price of a property. It demonstrates how prices have moved relative to the base period. 

Market Momentum

A rising index indicates an upward price trend. A falling index suggests price softening or correction. Since the HPI smooths noise and filters out outliers, it gives a more stable, reliable picture of pricing trends than monthly medians.

The HPI is based on an up-to-six-month rolling average, so it does not reflect short-term volatility, such as one-off surges in prices from luxury sales. All figures are rounded to the nearest whole number.