Why Did Overbidding on GTA Homes Suddenly Drop in June?

Higher interest rates and summer’s arrival may have crimped buyers’ willingness to overbid on homes in the Greater Toronto Area last month.

By Josh Sherman | 3 minute read

Bidding over the asking price on available homes on the resale market became slightly less common across the GTA in June.

The Greater Toronto Area’s housing market started to look a little less competitive last month, opening the door for more homebuyers to potentially get deals below sticker price as the spring market wound down.

In June, 62% of GTA neighbourhoods were in overbidding territory, compared to 68% in May, according to new analysis from digital real estate platform Wahi. To identify overbidding and underbidding neighbourhoods each month, Wahi compares the differences between list and sold prices for all types of homes, including condo units and houses. Neighbourhoods with fewer than five transactions in a month are excluded from calculations. 

Overall, 203 of 326 neighbourhoods were overbid in June, down from 222 out of 326 in the previous month. The month-over-month decline in the share of overbidding neighbourhoods is the first since January, when just 9% of neighbourhoods were in overbidding territory, a decline from the 12% observed in December 2022. Wahi CEO Benjy Katchen says that although the Bank of Canada’s June rate hike — which only some experts anticipated — may have pushed some would-be buyers to the sidelines, there is also likely a seasonal element at play. “Last summer, overbidding levels remained lower until the arrival of the typically busier fall market,” Katchen explains. “To an extent, a decline of overbidding activity heading into the summer is to be expected.” 

The Top 5 Overbidding Neighbourhoods in June 2023  

In May, Markham dominated the list of the top five overbidding neighbourhoods, occupying four positions. Tighter-than-normal inventory alongside some sellers pricing homes aggressively low in hopes of sparking a bidding war are two factors that have contributed to overbidding in Markham in recent months.

However, in June, three different municipalities (Toronto, Richmond Hill, and, of course, Markham) made the top five. Neighbourhoods are ranked according to calculations based on percentage changes between list and sale prices:

The Top 5 Underbidding Neighbourhoods in June 2023 

Since overbidding activity ramped up beginning earlier this year, the most underbid neighbourhoods have tended to be within more expensive price points. This trend continued into June. The leading underbidding neighbourhoods last month had median selling prices above $2 million, with only one exception: