Toronto’s Regional Real Estate Slump Continues — but Not in These Neighbourhoods

Home prices were bid down in 93% of Greater Toronto Area neighbourhoods this September. A very different story was playing out just west of the downtown core.

By Josh Sherman | 4 minute read

At the end of each month, digital real estate platform Wahi compares the differences between median list and sold prices to determine whether neighbourhoods are in overbidding or underbidding territory.

It has been five years since the Greater Toronto Area has had a strong fall real estate market, and early signs suggest 2026 isn’t the year things finally turn around.

While the GTA’s real estate market displayed limited signs of being more competitive to kick off the fall homebuying season — especially in west-end Toronto — a modest increase in bidding activity comes on the heels of near-all-time lows.

That’s according to the latest market analysis from Canadian digital real estate platform Wahi. As per the findings, just 6% of the 230 neighbourhoods in which at least five home sales took place were in overbidding territory this September. Though up from August (2%), the proportion of neighbourhoods in underbidding territory lingers around rock bottom. In September, 93% of neighbourhoods saw prices bid town, while one was selling at asking.

“It would be hard to imagine weaker bidding competition than we saw over the summer, so while any sign of more interest from homebuyers is a positive, we have to look at it within that broader context,” explains Wahi Economist Ryan McLaughlin. 

These findings are based on Wahi’s comprehensive analysis of list and sold prices for all homes that transacted on the resale market last month, including condos and single-family properties.

Homes Are Most Likely to Sell Above Asking in Central Toronto

Contrary to what was observed in August, the overall share of GTA homes selling for more than the list price edged higher in September relative to the previous month as well as the same time a year ago. Nearly one-in-four GTA homes (24%) changed hands last month for more than asking, compared to 18% in August and 22% in September 2025.

“There hasn’t been much good news for sellers in the GTA this year, but one shouldn’t read too much into what really amounts to a modest uptick in homes selling for above asking,” McLaughlin cautions. Rather than signs of a turnaround, he suspects seasonality is at play. “Even in times of weaker demand, the arrival of the fall market tends to lure more homebuyers off the sidelines, creating a little bit more competition,” McLaughlin continues. 

Increased competition was mostly limited to the single-family home segment, which includes detached and semi-detached houses as well as row and freehold townhomes. Some 28% of single-family homes that sold in September did so for more than the list price. That’s up significantly from August (21%) and marginally higher than September 2025 (25%). On the condo side, which includes condo apartments as well as townhomes with maintenance fees, 15% of units transacted at a premium. This is unchanged from a year ago, and up nominally from August (12%).

Notably, of the five broader communities (Durham, Halton, Peel, the City of Toronto, and York) that make up the GTA, the City of Toronto was the most favourable for sellers. There, 28% of homes of all types sold above asking, followed by 25% in Durham and York, 16% in Peel, and just 11% in Halton. In recent years, it has often been Durham — where new construction has added to supply and maintained better affordability — that has been the friendliest for sellers. That was also the case in August. 
 

Old Toronto Neighbourhoods Boast the Toughest Homebuyer Competition

Every month, Wahi presents the top five GTA overbidding neighbourhoods, based on the median overbid amount (see methodology below). Unsurprisingly, with Toronto seeing the strongest competition based on the share of listings selling over asking in September, it also dominated the top five for overbidding.

All five were older, established neighbourhoods within the Old City of Toronto boundaries — particularly in the old city’s west end, where homes are relatively affordable compared to neighbourhoods in midtown or downtown. The top five in September represent a shift from the previous month, when just two neighbourhoods in Toronto proper appeared on the list. 

Note that a variety of factors can influence bidding trends, from seasonality to selling strategies. For instance, in some cases, REALTORS® may be more likely to price a home below market value in hopes of attracting multiple offers. 

After topping the list for underbidding neighbourhoods for four consecutive months, the Oakville community of Eastlake slipped to third place in September. Since 2022, when Wahi started tracking bidding activity in the GTA, Eastlake has consistently been one of the region’s most underbid neighbourhoods. However, in September it was usurped by Ledbury Park, in Toronto’s North York, and Kleinburg, in Vaughan.

As Wahi rates the top underbidding neighbourhoods according to the median underbid amount, neighbourhoods with higher price points are more likely to rank higher on the list, and this was certainly the case once again in September. (If two neighbourhoods are underbid by the same percentage, the one with the higher sale price will consequently have a larger underbid amount in dollars.)

Methodology: How Wahi Ranks Overbidding and Underbidding Neighbourhoods

At the end of each month, Wahi compares the differences between median list and sold prices to determine whether neighbourhoods are in overbidding or underbidding territory, excluding those neighbourhoods with fewer than five transactions in a given month. A total of 230 neighbourhoods out of the GTA’s approximately 400 met this threshold in September, down from 267 in August. Data is sourced from Information Technology Systems Ontario (ITSO) and the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB).

The top overbidding and underbidding neighbourhoods are ranked by the median overbid or underbid amount. The median overbid and underbid amounts are calculated by subtracting the list price from the sold price of each individual listing in a given neighbourhood. These are then ranked by the median of all subtractions and presented as the median overbid or underbid amount. For the latest data on overbidding and underbidding at any point in the month, Wahi’s Market Pulse tool provides readings based on the past 30 days of transactions.