Nearly 50% of Waterloo Region’s Neighbourhoods Are Still Seeing Home Prices Bid Up

Waterloo region has been less vulnerable to the housing-market slowdown affecting cities and towns throughout the province.

By Josh Sherman | 3 minute read

Waterloo continues to attract Ontario homebuyers seeking more affordable housing as well as employment opportunities in tech and education.

While competition among homebuyers in Ontario’s major housing markets has been heavily muted, Waterloo region has been an outlier.

Nearly half of the region’s neighbourhoods were in overbidding territory during the third quarter of the year, according to new analysis from digital real estate platform Wahi. Overall, 48% of Waterloo neighbourhoods were overbid in Q3, with another 7% selling at-asking.

The remaining 45% were in underbidding territory, according to the analysis, which compares differences between list and sold prices in neighbourhoods with at least five transactions over the study period.

“While Waterloo region’s housing market showed signs of higher demand than Ontario’s biggest cities, the level of competition has dropped from a year ago,” says Wahi CEO Benjy Katchen. In Q3 2023, 74% of the region’s neighbourhoods were overbid, while 5% were selling at-asking. About one-in-five (21%) were underbid.

Despite the year-over-year decline, Waterloo region’s share of overbidding neighbourhoods stands in stark contrast to Ottawa. In the national’s capital, 99% of neighbourhoods saw home prices bid down in Q3 (although prices held fairly steady). It’s also a major departure from the Greater Toronto Area, where overbidding activity was limited to just 13% of neighbourhoods as of September.

Overbidding activity in Waterloo region was primarily concentrated in the single-family home segment. Looking only at this property type, the share of neighbourhoods in overbidding territory jumps to 61%. For condos, 18% of neighbourhoods were overbid. 

In recent years, the Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo area has seen strong population inflows from elsewhere in Ontario as well as through international migration, according to the Conference Board of Canada. The region has established itself as a tech and innovation hotbed, providing employment opportunities for newcomers to the region.

Waterloo region’s relative affordability has also boosted homebuying demand. The median price of a single-family home, including detached and semi-detached houses as well as townhomes, was $765,000 in Waterloo region in Q3. While home prices in Waterloo region soared during the pandemic, today they remain well below those in Toronto, where last quarter the median price of a single-family home was $1,150,000.

The Top 5 Waterloo Region Overbidding Neighbourhoods in Q3 2024

The most competitive neighbourhoods in Waterloo region last quarter had median overbid amounts ranging from the low-$40,000 range to the low-$50,000. The City of Waterloo and Kitchener each had two neighbourhoods in the top five, with Northview representing the lone Cambridge entry. Note that when a neighbourhood is in overbidding territory, it doesn’t necessarily mean that every home is selling above-asking. Instead, it’s a general reflection of overall market behaviour, which can be influenced by seasonal factors, for example, or decisions by sellers, such as to list homes below market value to try and attract more bids.

The Top 5 Waterloo Region Underbidding Neighbourhoods in Q3 2024

The spread between list and sold prices was wider for the region’s top five underbidding neighbourhoods. The median underbid amount ranged from approximately $20,000 to nearly $50,000. Four out of the top five underbidding neighbourhoods were in Kitchener, with one in Cambridge.  As with overbidding, when a neighbourhood is in underbidding territory it doesn’t necessarily signal a widespread decline in home prices. For instance, sellers may be listing their homes above reasonable market value

How Wahi Ranks Waterloo Region’s Overbidding and Underbidding Neighbourhoods

Every quarter, Wahi compares the differences between median list and sold prices to determine whether Waterloo region neighbourhoods are in overbidding or underbidding territory, excluding those neighbourhoods with fewer than five transactions in a given quarter. A total of 83 neighbourhoods out of Waterloo region’s approximately 120 met this threshold in Q3 2024. Data is sourced from Information Technology Systems Ontario (ITSO).

The top overbidding and underbidding neighbourhoods are ranked by the median overbid or underbid amount. The median overbid and underbid amounts are calculated by subtracting the list price from the sold price of each individual listing in a given neighbourhood. These are then ranked by the median of all subtractions and presented as the median overbid or underbid amount.