The Impact of Trump’s Presidency on Canadian Housing, and The Country’s Hottest Trending Rental Markets

This week’s top real estate stories.

By  Jared Lindzon | 2 minute read

Every Friday, Wahi brings you the most important real estate stories from the past week.

The U.S. Election is Over But Its Effects on Canadian Housing Prices Have Just Begun

The American election is already impacting the American economy, and when America sneezes, Canada usually catches a cold. As news of Trump’s victory rippled through the financial markets — sending American stocks, currency, and crypto values skyrocketing — it took Canada’s bond markets along with it. On Wednesday the 5-year Government of Canada bond yield hit a three-month high of 3.11%, resulting in some immediate — albeit modest — increases to the price of fixed mortgages. Experts also suggest the Bank of Canada will need to cut interest rates deeper to counter Trump’s proposed tariffs, which could devastate the Canadian economy long-term.

The Renewal Tsunami Approaches  

Hold onto your hats Canadian mortgage holders, because it’s going to be a bumpy 2025, especially for the 1.2 million fixed rate borrowers that are up for renewal. That’s because, according to CMHC, 85% of those mortgages were purchased when the Bank of Canada’s key interest rate was at or below 1%. While rates are falling, they’re certainly not going to dip that low before the clock runs out. The agency also flagged a slight increase in delinquencies, which rose from 0.17% at the end of 2023 to 0.19% in the second quarter of this year.

How Low Will Rates Go?

For those 1.2 million Canadian households with mortgage renewals coming up in the New Year, there’s a lot riding on where they’ll be sitting when the Bank of Canada stops the music. According to the Bank’s recent survey of 28 Canadian finance companies, most are anticipating four more 0.25% rate cuts between now and next June, bringing the policy rate down to 2.75%, where it will remain until the end of 2026. Some of the country’s biggest banks, however, are forecasting an even greater drop, predicting that this game of musical chairs will next stop at 2% in late 2025.

Signs of Life in Toronto and Vancouver

For Canada’s two largest housing markets 2024 hasn’t offered much to write home about, but new data suggests they’re both now turning the page. According to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, home sales were up by 44.4% last month compared to last October, while Greater Vancouver Realtors reports a 32% annual sales surge for October. At the same time, both markets continue to see more homes hit the market, with inventory up 4.3% in Toronto and 17% in Vancouver year-over-year, which is poised to keep home prices relatively stable as buying increases, at least in the short-term.

Trending Cities for Renters  

Some Canadian cities are blowing up online like they’re the hottest new challenge, dance, or skincare routine, and they’re probably not the ones you’re thinking of. According to a new report by RentCafe, Winnipeg is the country’s hottest trending rental market right now, followed by Saskatoon, Edmonton, Victoria and Ottawa. The Canadian apartment search platform ranked cities based on availability, page views, favourites and saved searches across millions of interactions on its website. In the third quarter of this year, mid-sized cities reigned supreme, with bigger population centres like Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal ranking 20th, 21st and 22nd, respectively.

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