First-Time Homebuyers Age, and a Cloudy Forecast for Toronto Condos

This week’s top real estate stories.

By Josh Sherman | 2 minute read

Every Friday, Wahi brings you the most important real estate stories from the past week. 

Overbidding Hits Multi-Year Low for April in the GTA’s Housing Market

Last month was the quietest April for bidding competition on homes in the Greater Toronto Area since Wahi began tracking the market midway through 2022, according to the digital real estate platform’s latest Market Pulse report. Overall, 84% of neighbourhoods in the GTA with at least five sales last month were in underbidding territory, compared to 73% in March. Condos remain most widely underbid, with 97% of neighbourhoods seeing downward pressure on sale prices compared to list prices. However, single-family homes are catching up, reaching 76% last month.

Ontario’s First-Time Homebuyers Are Greying

The typical first-time Ontario homebuyer is middle-aged. So suggests one of the findings from Teranet’s latest Market Insight Report. According to the report, which is based on 2024 data, 40 was the median age of Ontario’s first-time homebuyers last year. “This buyer segment is getting older and waiting longer to enter the Ontario real estate market,” the report notes. Ten years ago, the median age of a first-time homebuyer in the province was 36.

Toronto Condo Prices to Keep Falling in 2025: Forecast

It’s been a rocky road for Toronto’s condo market over the past year or so, and economists at one Canada’s biggest banks aren’t expecting 2025 to be any different. In fact, TD Economics is now forecasting that by the end of this year’s fourth quarter, the benchmark price of a condo will be down 8% from the previous year. That would represent an upwards of 15% decline since the peak in the third quarter of 2022. “Notably, this projection would erase much of the upside for condos gained during the pandemic, but not all,” Rishi Sondhi, a TD economist, writes in the report. Anyone (investors) waiting on price appreciation will have to hold out until 2026, when TD Economics is predicting prices to rebound by 4%.

Tariffs Rock Vancouver Home Sales

Despite lower interest rates, home sales in one of Canada’s most expensive housing markets took another tumble — that might be understating it — in April. Last month, 2,163 homes changed hands across all of Metro Vancouver, according to the Greater Vancouver REALTORS® association. That represents a nearly 24% fall from the same time a year ago. In a report releasing the monthly data, Andrew Lis, GVR’s director of economics and data analytics, called the drop “unusual” given mortgages have become more affordable of late. “What’s also unusual is starting the year with Canada’s largest trading partner threatening to tilt our economy into recession via trade policy, while at the same time having Canadians head to the polls to elect a new federal government. These issues have been hard to ignore, and the April home sales figures suggest some buyers have continued to patiently wait out the storm.”

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