Toronto vs. Everybody: Metro Area Tops International Ranking for Population Growth

Over a 12 month period ending last year, Toronto’s population swelled more than any other metro area in Canada or the U.S., adding significant demand to a market in the grips of an affordability crisis.

By Josh Sherman | 3 minute read

The Canadian cities of Montreal, Vancouver, and Calgary also have some fastest-growing populations.

Toronto is gaining more new residents than any other metro area in Canada or the U.S., according to a new report.

Over a 12-month period ending on July 1, 2024, the Toronto metropolitan area’s population increased by 269,000 residents, far surpassing runner-up New York, which added 213,000 newcomers.

Three other Canadian cities cracked the top 10: Montreal, Vancouver, and Calgary, with annual increases of about 90,000 to approximately 110,000.

There’s one main factor behind Toronto’s growth, suggests Frank Clayton, co-founder and senior research fellow at Toronto Metropolitan University’s Centre for Urban Research and Land Development, which released the report. “Immigration is the driver,” he tells Wahi. The same goes for Montreal, he adds.

Calgary differs in that a larger portion of its growth is attributed to people moving there from elsewhere in Canada. “People are moving there to get jobs, and enjoy the lower cost of housing — and maybe enjoy the Rocky Mountains,” says Clayton.

Clayton compares Calgary to another top metro area for growth: Houston, which gained 195,000 residents in 12 months, placing it third. “They don’t have  state income tax, that’s a big attraction. And warmer weather,” he says, noting that, similar to Cowtown, much of Houston’s growth comes from interstate migration rather than international inflows.

In 2023 alone, nearly 40,000 people moved from Ontario to Alberta, helping the province smash a national record for interprovincial migration. Since then, the trend has continued as high housing costs in Toronto have pushed many homebuyers to look elsewhere in the country. 

With the newly elected Liberal federal government under Prime Minister Mark Carney planning to further curtail already-reduced immigration targets, Clayton doesn’t expect Toronto’s population boom to continue at the previous rate. “Toronto’s going to be affected no question about it,” he says. All else equal, lower immigration would be a positive for affordability in a region that has become a flashpoint for Canada’s housing crisis. However, Clayton notes, the recent pace of housing construction hasn’t been sufficient: “Our housing production is down a lot.”

Housing starts have nosedived in Toronto recently. In March, developers broke ground on 65% fewer homes than a year prior, according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. Over the same period, Vancouver, also among the country’s least-affordable real estate markets, housing starts fell by 59%. Of Canada’s three biggest population centres, only Montreal saw an increase, with starts soaring 138% year-over-year, as per the CMHC.

While housing costs remain high in Toronto, Clayton notes conditions have been easing of late as an earlier clawback of immigration targets — announced late last year by the Justin Trudeau-led Liberals — has begun to be felt. “Affordability is improving, and it’s due to the fact that things got really bad — and it’s also due to less demand due to reduced immigration.”