Supply Imbalances and Affordability Fuel Diverging Canadian Home Price Trends

While the RPS-Wahi House Price Index was unchanged on a year-over-year basis in September at the national level, select markets are beginning to see price growth accelerate.

By Josh Sherman | 4 minute read

The RPS-Wahi House Price Index, created by Real Property Solutions and presented by Wahi, is a trusted indicator of Canadian home price trends.

Wahi, a leading Canadian real estate platform, and Real Property Solutions (RPS), the foremost Canadian provider of property valuation services, today released their monthly house price index for September 2025.

The latest data show that stark regional variations characterized the start to the fall Canadian housing market this year. Home prices are continuing to slide on an annual basis in Canada’s most expensive cities, but in select locales with better affordability conditions, gains are beginning to accelerate.  These divergent trends effectively cancel each other out at the national level. The RPS-Wahi House Price Index — which is based on the latest monthly actual home values in 1,000 towns and cities across the country — was unchanged from a year ago, mirroring August’s index reading.

“The national numbers are suggestive of a market on pause, though that’s certainly not the case in cities in Quebec and Atlantic Canada, as well as certain parts of the prairies, which may be heating up more,” says RPS-Wahi Economist Ryan McLaughlin. “Despite softening in prices for all property types, there’s also a sizable gap between ground-oriented homes and apartments,” he adds.

While prices for detached homes, which account for more than 50% of all dwellings in Canada, stood 1% higher compared to 12 months ago, the values of all other housing types remained either down or flat.

Condo prices have been down on an annual basis throughout the year, though semi-detached homes joined the fray this summer. Interestingly, the condo downturn did not appear to intensify in the latest reading of the RPS-Wahi House Price Index. September’s 6% year-over-year decline is relatively consistent with what has been observed since May. Prior to that, drops in condo prices were gaining momentum.

“The condo market didn’t appear to fare any worse off in September than it had over the summer, but that’s not necessarily a sign we’ve reached bottom, as certain factors could be sustained headwinds,” says McLaughlin. “For instance, this year, we expect a record number of condos to be completed in the Greater Toronto Area,” he explains. McLaughlin notes that some of these units, which began construction during the pandemic boom, may end up on the resale market, boosting inventory levels and further trimming prices in Canada’s biggest condo centre.

Prices Climb in 10 of 13 Major Canadian Metro Areas in September   

In September, prices were once again elevated in 10 of 13 major metro areas that were analyzed in addition to the national RPS-Wahi House Price Index. Quebec City and Winnipeg were the lone markets to see prices increase by upwards of 10% on a year-over-year basis. Interestingly, in Winnipeg — alongside Halifax and Regina — the rate of price appreciation was higher in September than the previous month. 

These regional disparities in pricing across Canada’s major markets appear reflective of supply levels and overall housing affordability. In the most expensive markets, where inventory levels are at multi-year highs and homebuying demand is subdued, prices are in negative territory. On the other hand, markets that have been historically more affordable, such as Halifax, Regina, and Winnipeg, are seeing stronger price growth. As previously noted, population growth has helped feed demand in Regina and Winnipeg. 

Inbound migration to Alberta has also buoyed Alberta markets in recent years, though these markets are now cooling somewhat from historic highs. As recently as the start of this year, Calgary and Edmonton were experiencing some of the most rapid price growth of any major market outside of the province of Quebec.

Since then, the pace of annual appreciation has been easing in these cities to more sustainable levels. Home values are up on a year-over-year basis by 5% in Edmonton and 3% in Calgary, having fallen from double-digit annual growth at this year’s onset. A wave of homebuilding activity in these markets is giving buyers more choice and helping keep a lid on price growth, particularly in Calgary. In fact, during the second quarter, housing starts surged by 32% in Calgary and 29% in Edmonton, relative to the same time last year. This stands in contrast to Toronto and Vancouver, where housing starts are in decline for lack of demand. 

About the RPS-Wahi House Price Index (HPI)

The RPS-Wahi Home Price Index is the most comprehensive source for house price data in Canada and includes the median house price dollar values and extensive additional data by property type from a national to the local level. For more information, the complete methodology is available.

Long-Term Price Trends

The RPS-Wahi House Price Index is based on the latest monthly actual home values in 1,000 towns and cities across the country.

The index shows how property values have changed over time, relative to a base period (Jan. 2005 = 100). An HPI value of 300 means property values have tripled (on a smoothed, adjusted basis) since 2005.

The HPI does not indicate the actual price of a property. It demonstrates how prices have moved relative to the base period. 

Market Momentum

A rising index indicates an upward price trend. A falling index suggests price softening or correction. Since the HPI smooths noise and filters out outliers, it gives a more stable, reliable picture of pricing trends than monthly medians.

The HPI is based on an up-to-six-month rolling average, so it does not reflect short-term volatility, such as one-off surges in prices from luxury sales. All figures are rounded to the nearest whole number.