Canadian Home Prices Levelling off as Condo Market Matches 20-Year Low

The RPS-Wahi House Price Index was up 1% year-over-year in May, but growth in home values is moderating as tariffs and the condo downturn take a toll.

By Josh Sherman | 4 minute read

The RPS-Wahi House Price Index, created by Real Property Solutions and presented by Wahi, is a trusted indicator of Canadian home price trends.

The beleaguered condo segment, especially in the Toronto and Vancouver markets, is one of the main drivers of the overall cooling at a national level. Condo values plunged 7% annually in May. This is tied for the largest year-over-year decline in condo values since the RPS-Wahi House Price Index was established in 2005. April and May of 2023, towards the tail end of the Bank of Canada’s last rate-hiking cycle, were the only other times that condo values fell at this rate.

Detached and row/townhouse values continued to prop up the national index in May, with the former increasing by 3% and the latter posting a 2% gain. However, these fell short of April’s gains. Semi-detached values edged 1% lower after remaining unchanged in April relative to the same time last year. 

Values Remain Elevated in Most Major Markets, but Declines Sharpen in Hamilton, Toronto, and Vancouver

In addition to the national RPS-Wahi House Price Index, which is based on an up-to-six-month rolling average of actual home values in 1,000 cities and towns across Canada, the indices for 13 major metro areas were analyzed.

Prices remained up year-over-year in 10 of 13 markets, once again led by Quebec City (+14%), where supply is insufficient to meet demand owing to the metro area’s relative affordability. One-in-four properties in Quebec City are changing hands for upwards of 10% over the list price, according to Quebec REALTORS®.

“A number of regional pricing trends persisted in May, with gains in Alberta and Quebec standing in contrast to declines in Canada’s most expensive markets,” says RPS-Wahi President and CEO Benjy Katchen.

Edmonton followed Quebec City with a 10% year-over-year surge in values. In February, Edmonton overtook Calgary in terms of year-over-year growth for the first time since August of 2021. This divergence continued into May, as Calgary values remained 5% up from a year ago.

In general, Alberta’s major markets have proven more resilient during the prolonged post-pandemic cooling period. The province’s lower home prices and labour market have attracted Canadians from other provinces. Anecdotally, some Calgary demand is shifting to Edmonton, which boasts better affordability.

Behind Edmonton, Montreal and Victoria were tied for third in terms of appreciation with values climbing 8% in each.

Tariffs Take a Toll 

Although prices remain elevated from this time last year in the vast majority of major markets, the pace of annual appreciation in May was slowing or flat compared to what was observed in April in all 13 metro areas.

“The sluggish condo market is weighing on Canadian home price growth, but it is not the only headwind,” says Katchen. “Tariffs have challenged consumer confidence, and some local economies have been hit harder than others,” he continues.

For example, not long ago, Hamilton had been outperforming Toronto. As recently as February, Hamilton home values were up 3% annually, compared to 1% in Toronto. In May, both markets experienced a 3% decline.

Hamilton’s housing market has been less affected by the condo downturn, though the city is exposed to other risks. The port city is Canada’s main producer of steel, accounting for 60% of the country’s output. As the U.S. imposes steep tariffs on steel, Hamilton has become one of the most vulnerable cities to stateside trade policy, suggests the Canadian Chamber of Commerce. Because Toronto’s economy is considerably less reliant on exports, it is more insulated from the knock-on effects of international trade tensions.

Of the three markets to post year-over-year price declines in May, Vancouver experienced the sharpest drop at 4%. Like Toronto, Vancouver has seen condo inventory levels double between 2022 and 2025 as sales have plunged. A historically high number of new condos continue to flood the market as contractors complete buildings that entered the presale phase several years ago. This is expected to inflate supply levels looking ahead.

As the ripple effects of new condo inventory, tariffs, and other factors such as challenging affordability conditions work their way through the Canadian housing market, the RPS-Wahi House Price Index will continue to be a leading indicator. Recent appraisals are one of the data sources for the index, which also uses land registry and other sales data, making it the most timely indicator of prices.

About the RPS-Wahi House Price Index (HPI)

The RPS-Wahi Home Price Index is the most comprehensive source for house price data in Canada and includes the median house price dollar values and extensive additional data by property type from a national to the local level. For more information, the complete methodology is available.

Long-Term Price Trends

The RPS-Wahi House Price Index is based on the latest monthly actual home values in 1,000 towns and cities across the country.

The index shows how property values have changed over time, relative to a base period (Jan. 2005 = 100). An HPI value of 300 means property values have tripled (on a smoothed, adjusted basis) since 2005.

The HPI does not indicate the actual price of a property. It demonstrates how prices have moved relative to the base period. 

Market Momentum

A rising index indicates an upward price trend. A falling index suggests price softening or correction. Since the HPI smooths noise and filters out outliers, it gives a more stable, reliable picture of pricing trends than monthly medians.

The HPI is based on an up-to-six-month rolling average, so it does not reflect short-term volatility, such as one-off surges in prices from luxury sales. All figures are rounded to the nearest whole number.