Atlantic Canada’s Housing Markets Are Bucking the Real Estate Downturn. Here’s Why

Robust population growth coupled with lower home prices continues to insulate Atlantic Canada from the worst effects of a weaker economic landscape.

By Josh Sherman | 5 minute read

As with Canada’s top-performing real estate markets of Quebec City, Regina, and Winnipeg, the “relative affordability” of the country’s Atlantic region has boosted home sales and prices there, too.

While the RPS-Wahi House Price Index shows prices are most elevated in Alberta, Manitoba, and Quebec, there’s another pocket of the country where the real estate market has been running at a brisk clip: Atlantic Canada.

In Halifax last month, the economic powerhouse of the region, home prices remained up 4% compared to a year ago, according to Wahi’s latest index reading from October. Meanwhile, home sales were up 3.2% annually, according to the Nova Scotia Association of REALTORS ®.

And it’s not alone in the region. Earlier this year, Scotiabank noted that while Canada-wide home prices remain 40% higher than before the pandemic, they are up between 70-80% across Halifax, Fredericton, and Saint John.

Canadians choosing to retire out east is one trend that’s propped up the region’s housing market, suggests Shaun Cathcart, senior economist at CREA. “The east coast seems to have gotten more retirees from places like Ontario the last five years whereas the Prairies are getting the young families,” Cathcart tells Wahi.

Rebekah Young, an economist with Scotiabank, suggests a previous population boom between 2020 and 2024 continues to support stronger prices and sales across the region this year. “One early pandemic story was population growth. There was a lot of both international immigration as well as interprovincial migration into the Atlantic region,” she says.

While Nova Scotia and Newfoundland are now trending closer to the national average for population growth — which is still elevated historically for the region — Prince Edward Island especially continues to see above-average growth.

Young also points out that it typically takes international migrants several years to purchase property. “That creates a pent-up demand,” says Young. “That does suggest that we would’ve only started to see some of that demand coming to market,” she says, explaining that newcomers who arrived during the pandemic boom may only now be starting their homebuying journey.  

As with the top-performing markets of Quebec City, Regina, and Winnipeg, the “relative affordability” of Atlantic Canada has been another driver of prices and sales. “If you look at home-price-to-income as a basic metric of affordability, you still see a very big advantage both in the Prairies as well as in the Atlantic provinces,” Young tells Wahi. 

While Atlantic Canada’s housing market has held up better than many others and bucked the national trend, Young sees emerging headwinds. In particular, international trade tensions appear to be taking a toll. “Year-to-date, job growth in Atlantic Canada has been weaker than it has been in other parts of the country,” she says. 

New Brunswick’s lumber industry has been affected, as has P.E.I.’s aerospace industry owing to its connection to steel and aluminum products. “There’s been a number of very specific industries hit in the region when it comes to what’s going on with the U.S. trade war,” she says, adding Nova Scotia has also faced tariffs from China on seafood exports.

Such developments can weigh on potential homebuying activity. “When Canadians here or in Atlantic Canada and other parts, when they’re worried about losing a job, they also don’t make major purchases — so it’s not just how strong job growth is,” says Young.

However, rather than a downturn, Young sees the pace of price appreciation continuing to slow. In addition to pent-up demand from previous arrivals, homebuilding activity isn’t meeting current demand. “We’re looking more at a decelerated home-price appreciation — not prices falling substantially as we look out over the median term.”