Overbidding on GTA Homes Rises Sharply (Again)

For two consecutive months, the share of Greater Toronto Area neighbourhoods that are in overbidding territory has dramatically increased.

By Josh Sherman | 5 minute read

When it comes to the top five overbidding neighbourhoods in the Greater Toronto Area, none were in the city proper — although the 416 did have a top underbidding neighbourhood.

The Greater Toronto Area’s housing market is continuing to see a surge in overbidding activity as the spring selling season gets into swing, according to new analysis from digital real estate platform Wahi.

In March, more than one third (35%) of GTA neighbourhoods were in overbidding territory. The share of overbidding neighbourhoods has increased sharply in recent months, having previously soared to 24% in February, up from 9% in January. “We’re seeing some confidence return to the market,” says Wahi CEO Benjy Katchen, noting the recent stabilization of interest rates as a factor. 

Wahi determines which neighbourhoods are in overbidding or underbidding territory by comparing the differences between list and sold prices for all residential property types in a given month. Neighbourhoods must have had at least five transactions to be evaluated. Based on Wahi’s findings, 110 out of 317 neighbourhoods were in overbidding territory in March. That’s the highest level since Wahi began tracking overbidding in July 2022. 

The GTA’s Top 5 Overbidding Neighbourhoods  

When a neighbourhood is in overbidding territory, typically most of its homes are selling over asking. York Region laid claim to all five of the top neighbourhoods for overbidding in March, with three within the city of Markham. “There’s definitely a hot part in Markham,” says Katchen. These are the overbidding neighbourhoods with the greatest percentage differences between list and sale prices:

Generally, Katchen adds, the more expensive and centrally located GTA neighbourhoods — such as Forest Hill, Davisville, or Thornhill, for example — are seeing less competition than more affordable pockets within the region. “The lower price points of every different type of dwelling, whether it’s condo, semi, or detached, are what’s surging in overbidding,” Katchen adds.

The GTA’s Top 5 Underbidding Neighbourhoods  

The GTA’s top underbidding neighbourhoods were spread across three regions: Halton, Peel, and the City of Toronto. Notably, three of the top underbidding neighbourhoods were in Oakville. Here are the GTA neighbourhoods where you’ll find the largest decreases between list and sale prices:

These underbidding neighbourhoods tended to have much higher home prices than those where overbidding activity was hottest. For example, Mineola’s median list price was $1,827,500, the lowest of any of the top five underbidding markets. That’s still roughly double Greensborough’s, which at $998,800 was the neighbourhood that had the lowest median list price in the top five overbidding neighbourhoods.
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Looking to learn more about the GTA market? Explore Wahi’s 2023 Where to Live rankings, a data-driven ranking of GTA neighbourhoods in 11 lifestyle categories, from foodies or nature lovers to seniors or families with young kids.