Canadian Market-Watchers Nearly Unanimous With Rate-Cut Predictions

Wahi asked real estate industry professionals — including economists, academics, and REALTORS® — about their predictions for the Bank of Canada’s next rate announcement.

By Josh Sherman | 3 minute read

Leading up to each scheduled BoC rate announcement, Wahi surveys upwards of a dozen real estate leaders to gauge market sentiment and find out where the industry thinks rates are headed.

While the Canadian economy is demonstrating resilience in the face of a fraught trade relationship with the U.S, many market-watchers still expect Canada’s central bank to further reduce interest rates on Wednesday.

In fact, nine-out-10 respondents to Wahi’s latest Rate Outlook Panel say the central bank will follow up September’s 25-basis-point rate cut with another one this week.

In the days leading up to each rate announcement, Wahi surveys upwards of a dozen real estate industry professionals, including economists at some of Canada’s biggest banks as well as academics and analysts. Respondents to Wahi’s Rate Outlook Panel are asked whether they anticipate a rate cut — and, if so, by how much — as well as the reasoning behind their decision.

“There are very clear signals that the economy is slowing down,” says CIBC Deputy Chief Economist Benjamin Tal. He notes a softening labour market as well as slackening business investment and uncertainty from the Trump administration. 

Alex Leduc, founder and CEO of Perch Mortgages was the lone hold out in Wahi’s Rate Outlook Panel this month. “The negative economic outlook for the Canadian economy and the rising unemployment likely weighed heavily on the Bank of Canada, but the uptick in inflation to 2.8% in September likely was enough to stay their hand to prevent inflation from further accelerating,” he explains.

Although Moshe Lander, a senior economics lecturer at Concordia University, anticipates a cut he, like Leduc, isn’t convinced it’s necessary. “I don’t know that I would do it,” he says, noting that inflation is still around the central bank’s target. “It really is a coin toss,” he adds.