Why These 3 Cities Are Canada’s Most Resilient Housing Markets Right Now

Economists suggest a combination of affordability, sticky employment rates, and demographics are largely supporting Canada’s most resilient housing markets today.  

By Josh Sherman | 5 minute read

Despite the constant threat of tariffs and homebuyer uncertainty in some Canadian housing markets, home prices are soaring in Regina, Quebec City, and Winnipeg.

During the pandemic, Ali McEwen decided that the Toronto condo she had purchased in 2006 just wasn’t cutting it any more. 

With lockdowns and self-isolating, the place had started to feel cramped. Plus, her Scottish terrier could use more room to roam. “I had loved my condo life in Toronto for the whole 17 years I was there, but when you start having these restrictions… it just started to take a bit of a toll on me,” she says. “I was really interested in having more space.”

Though she was able to sell her downtown unit for $685,000 — about $465,000 more than she paid for it — she didn’t upsize in Toronto. Instead, in 2021, she purchased a detached home for $415,000 — in Regina, Sask. While the city was her hometown, the affordability of bigger single-family houses there was a big determining factor.

While the pandemic is over, Regina’s relative housing affordability has continued to attract out-of-towners. This, coupled with a strong labour market that supports local homebuying activity, is heating up a once-calm market. Economists note that it’s a trend playing out in a handful smaller, historically stable Canadian housing markets that are firing on all cylinders while other cities see slower growth or outright price declines. 

In fact, as home prices continue to fall in Toronto and Vancouver and growth levels off in formerly red-hot markets such as Calgary and Edmonton, values stand approximately 10% (or higher) than they were a year ago in Regina, Winnipeg, and Quebec City, according to the latest reading of the RPS-Wahi House Price Index.

Economists are attributing at least some of that growth to the fact that in these places, a family-sized home isn’t completely out of reach for a typical household. “People have moved to where housing is more affordable,” writes Shaun Cathcart, a senior economist at the Canadian Real Estate Association, in an email to Wahi. “The east coast seems to have gotten more retirees from places like Ontario the last five years whereas the Prairies are getting the young families,” he adds.

Lately, Canadians aged one-year-old and under have been one of the biggest cohorts moving to the Prairies from elsewhere in Canada. These numbers tell a story that’s become increasingly common. “Parents are packing up once they’ve had kids and going where they can get the space to raise a family, even if it’s thousands of kilometres away from family and friends,” says Cathcart.

While Calgary and Edmonton have previously seen this trend attract demand, Regina and Winnipeg now appear to be the region’s flash points — and it’s easy to see why. For young families seeking a more affordable way of life, it doesn’t get much better than Regina. RBC deemed the capital of Saskatchewan the most affordable of Canada’s major housing markets in the second quarter of this year. Carrying costs of a benchmark Regina home worked out to 26% of the median pre-tax household income, RBC’s analysis found.

Similar conditions prevail in Winnipeg, where carrying costs still work out to less than a third of the median pre-tax income, long considered the affordability sweet spot for homebuyers. For comparison, in Vancouver — Canada’s least affordable market — mortgage payments, property taxes, and utilities for a benchmark home devour about 90% of a typical household’s earnings. 

“We’ve often joked that after Edmonton, Saskatoon, Regina, and Winnipeg, Thunder Bay may be that last market left in Canada where demand hasn’t rushed in to buy up (and drive up the prices of) the remaining affordable family-sized homes,” continues Cathcart, who notes that interprovincial migration from Ontario “is slowing down now.”

Also feeding domestic demand is Saskatchewan’s strong labour market, notes a recent report from TD. “Saskatchewan seems to have taken the mantle as the hottest housing market in the country this year,” writes TD Economist Rishi Sondhi. “Robust job growth is helping to underpin incomes and housing demand in the province,” he continues.

The latest jobs numbers for the province once again showed a year-over-year increase in employment, including in Regina, with the healthcare, business, and construction industries helping lead the way. “At the same time, affordability remains relatively decent, even with recent price gains, and listings continue to run below their long-term average,” explains Sondhi in the TD report. 

Students and Seniors Affect Supply and Demand in Quebec City 

Population growth, relative affordability, and surprisingly solid employment rates are buoying Quebec City’s real estate market, too, says Hélène Bégin, a senior economist at the Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers. “Many young people come to Quebec City for their university studies, and, after, if they like it, there’s a lot of work and they tend to stay,” she tells Wahi. “We have a strong economy,” she notes, citing the public sector and the financial and insurance industry as major employers. 

While Quebec City is somewhat exposed to the threat of U.S. tariffs, job losses have so far been concentrated to those aged between 15 to 24 — hardly the main homebuying demographic, Bégin notes — and a widespread downturn has yet to materialize.

On the supply front, Bégin says that Quebec City hasn’t been constrained in the same way that Toronto and Vancouver have. In those markets, sky-high land values have limited the development of single-family homes. Nonetheless, homebuilders just can’t get shovels in the ground fast enough to meet demand. “The population growth is just too quick,” she adds.

Another supply-side factor is the types of homes that are being constructed of late, says CREA’s Cathcart. “A big reason [for escalating home prices] is the lack of new construction in the ownership space that so many young people want to get into,” he says. “Montreal and Quebec City are just two examples of cities where purpose-built rental apartments have taken over, so no surprise there is more competition for everything else.”

Not only that, but many older property owners in Quebec City are electing to age in place rather than sell their homes and move to a retirement facility, adding to the supply crunch of ownership housing, says Bégin: “They are keeping their residences for a longer time, so there are not many putting their home up for sale.” 

Back in Regina, McEwen shares some intel for anyone considering leaving a big Canadian city for a smaller market in the Prairies. “One of my biggest adjustments is not having such a long commute,” she says. “It’s definitely a lot slower-paced than Toronto, but there are lots of great things to offer from fantastic restaurants, walking trails — just don’t go house hunting between January and March,” she adds. “The weather’s a little bit chillier.”