Here’s One Thing Canadian Market-Watchers Can Agree on

Wahi asked real estate industry professionals — including economists, academics, and REALTORS® — about their predictions for the Bank of Canada’s next rate announcement.

By Josh Sherman | 3 minute read

Leading up to each scheduled BoC rate announcement, Wahi surveys upwards of a dozen real estate leaders to gauge market sentiment and find out where the industry thinks rates are headed.

Respondents to Wahi’s latest Rate Outlook Panel all agree: the BoC will hold the overnight rate at 2.25% at its first scheduled announcement of the year on Wednesday, Jan. 28. 

The BoC trimmed its influential policy rate four times in 2025 — including back-to-back cuts this past September and October — but the market-watchers surveyed by Wahi say that the current level of inflation will keep the central bank on the sideline for now.

“We anticipate no change to the overnight rate from the Bank of Canada on Wednesday.  At December’s meeting, Governor [Tiff] Macklem reiterated the BoC’s holding bias, contingent on moderate growth and stabilizing inflation,” says Rachel Battaglia, an economist with RBC Economics. 

In the days leading up to each rate announcement, Wahi surveys upwards of a dozen real estate industry professionals, including economists at some of Canada’s biggest banks as well as academics and analysts. Respondents to Wahi’s Rate Outlook Panel are asked whether they anticipate a rate cut — and, if so, by how much — as well as the reasoning behind their decision.

“With inflation stabilized and uncertainty in the economy remaining on a day-to-day basis, we think the Bank of Canada will not shift greatly, particularly during the first half of the year,” says Pauline Lierman, vice president of market research at Zonda Urban.

Moshe Lander, a senior economics lecturer at Concordia University, says several recent items support the BoC continuing its rate pause. These factors include inflation remaining within the central bank’s target band of 1-3%, an unemployment rate of less than 7%, a December labour-market report that reflected net job creation, and an appreciating Canadian dollar. 

“The economy is certainly not firing on all cylinders, but neither is it going in reverse,” says Lander. “The Bank is best to hold onto its remaining possible cuts… and wait to see how 2026 unfolds before using them.”

More than one respondent suggested the BoC’s finger will remain on the pause button for some time. “I believe we will see a continued hold on the overnight rate for the foreseeable future, taking us toward the later part of 2026,” says Mark Fieder, Avison Young Canada’s principal and president.

“As a next move, when that time comes, our commercial real estate industry would clearly benefit most from cuts to stimulate deals.”