How to Pick the Best Canadian Mortgage for You Right Now

Economic uncertainty has more Canadian homebuyers choosing mortgages with fixed rates and in some cases shorter terms — here’s what to consider before signing on with a lender today.

By Josh Sherman | 4 minute read

There’s a lot to consider before obtaining your mortgage, especially in parlous times.

Canadian mortgage borrowers are living in uncertain times.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau recently announced his resignation with a federal election looming, while incoming U.S. President Donald Trump has vowed to slap heavy tariffs on Canadian imports, a move some economists warn would force Canada into a recession.

To complicate matters, these developments are playing out against a backdrop of rapidly falling interest rates following a period of historically high borrowing costs. Whether Trump follows through with his threat remains unclear. So does how Canada would respond — and who would be at the helm.

But one thing is clear: Either way, there will be consequences for the economy at large and the mortgage market, specifically, observers note. “Federal elections can influence economic conditions by shaping government policies, market sentiment, and investor behavior,” Lauren van den Berg, CEO and President of Mortgage Professionals Canada, tells Wahi. “Uncertainty during election periods can lead to cautious spending and investment, while post-election policies on taxation, spending, and regulation directly impact economic growth.”

Even during periods of calm, choosing which kind of mortgage is best for you is a big decision. Given all of today’s unknowns, Wahi reached out to mortgage-market experts for advice.

How to Choose Between a Fixed- or Variable- Rate Mortgage Today

There are several types of mortgages available to Canadian homebuyers, but most consumers will be shopping around for either a fixed- or variable-rate mortgage. “The age-old question remains: should I opt for a fixed rate or variable mortgage?” says van den Berg.

Fixed-rate mortgages provide borrowers with an interest rate that remains the same over the course of the mortgage term (the contract period, typically between three to five years). 

Variable-rate mortgages, on the other hand, are impacted by changes to the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate throughout the mortgage term.

However, just because the central bank cuts the overnight rate, it doesn’t necessarily mean your monthly payments will go down, too. “In a variable rate your payment doesn’t change but your amortization does,” explains  Alex Leduc, founder and CEO of Perch Mortgages. In other words, as rates decline, more of your monthly payment goes towards the principle (amount owing) rather than interest. The exception is variable mortgages with an adjustable rate. “In an adjustable [mortgage], your amortization stays the same but your payment changes.”

Here’s how to decide which type is the right mortgage for you.

Follow the Market 

“Right now, borrowers need to be especially mindful of the broader economic factors influencing the mortgage market,” says van den Berg. “The incoming Trump administration’s threats of tariffs on Canada and the upcoming spring elections in Canada could introduce market uncertainty and influence economic conditions.” Generally, van den Berg says, variable rates are ideal for borrowers who expect interest rates to have plateaued or may decline further. That’s because variable rates respond to the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate, which the central bank uses to control the rate of inflation. While market-watchers broadly anticipate the Bank of Canada to continue to cut rates through 2025, the outlook is for a less aggressive easing cycle from the central bank.

Do the Math

Choosing the right mortgage is a numbers game — or at least it should be. Today, despite an outlook supporting even lower rates, the numbers suggest a fixed rate is the best bet, Alex Leduc, founder and CEO of Perch Mortgages, tells Wahi. “The math says the variable rate isn’t worth it yet, but people don’t do the math.” Normally, variable rates are priced lower than fixed rates, but that isn’t the case today. Even if the BoC delivers enough rate cuts to bring variables on par with fixed rates, Leduc emphasizes that further cuts would be needed to make up for the earlier part of the term when variable borrowers were paying more — something many mortgage shoppers forget.  

Leduc recommends using the Perch Pathfinder tool. It lets homebuyers compare different mortgages by type and term based on anticipated payments, highlighting potential savings. “We actually have an interest-rate forecast model, so we break in the expected cost of borrowing over every single term,” says Leduc. “When I last ran it a couple days ago, three-year fixed was the most attractive.”

Even though rates are falling, Leduc suggests that variable mortgages are still priced too high above fixed ones for variable borrowers to save.

Take a Shorter Term

Historically, five-year terms have been the most popular. However, these days, Canadian borrowers are opting for shorter terms as they take a wait-and-see approach. If you’re not 100% confident in your decision, or you think better deals might be around the corner, you may want to as well.

“With a falling-rate environment, you’re better off getting the shorter term if you can renew into a potential lower rate even earlier,” says Leduc, though he cautions going shorter than three years comes at too much of a premium.

Currently, about 70% of the mortgages Perch is originating are three-year fixed-rate mortgages, followed by 10-15% fixed on a five-year term. The remainder are five-year variables.

Access Your Risk Tolerance 

Of course, personal preferences also play a part in mortgage shopping. It’s not just about the cold, hard numbers. “A variable rate mortgage is typically best suited for consumers who are financially stable, have a good tolerance for risk, and are flexible in their long-term financial plans,” van den Berg explains. “These borrowers are often comfortable with potential rate fluctuations and may benefit from the potential for lower initial rates that a variable mortgage offers.”

Fixed rates, meanwhile, are favoured for consistency. “People always like the fixed because there’s a certainty to it,” explains Leduc. “There are a lot of borrowers for whom that’s the number-one factor: predictability,” he says.

Those stepping onto the property ladder for the first time may find the predictability especially comforting.  

“Fixed-rate mortgages are best for consumers who prioritize stability and predictability in their payments. This is particularly important for first-time homebuyers or those with a fixed income who want to avoid the risk of fluctuating payments,”  van den Berg continues.

If you’re worried about the possibility of rate hikes during your mortgage term, you’ll want to consider a fixed-rated mortgage. “The security of a fixed rate ensures that borrowers are protected from market changes, making it an attractive choice for those who need budgeting certainty,” says van den Berg.

Know the Rules 

Taking on a mortgage is a big responsibility, one that comes with a variety of rules and expectations for the borrower. Understanding these rules and requirements will help you make the most informed decision. For example, if you decide to go with a fixed-rate but later on decide you’d like to switch to variable, you’ll pay a penalty to do so, which is not the case when going from variable to fixed. “If you want to bet on falling rates, just start variable — and if the expectations change, lock in fixed,” Leduc says. “Typically you would take that position if you expect fixed rates to drop.”