Hamilton Homebuyer Competition Backs Off

Wahi’s latest analysis of Hamilton home sales data suggests the housing market is still in buyer’s territory even as bidding activity in its neighbour to the northeast picks up.  

By Josh Sherman | 3 minute read

Hamilton’s housing market has yet to show signs of the green shoots sprouting in the neighbouring Greater Toronto Area.

Hamilton may share a border with the Greater Toronto Area, but when it comes to the level of competition between homebuyers, the distance is growing between the two housing markets, new analysis from digital real estate platform Wahi suggests.

In the third quarter of the year, only 5% of the city’s neighbourhoods were in overbidding territory, down sharply from 18% in Q2, when Hamilton buyers were bidding more aggressively.

An additional 4% of neighbourhoods were selling at-asking in Q3, while the remaining 92% were underbid (percentages don’t equal 100% due to rounding).  Neighbourhoods needed to record at least five home sales during the quarter to be included. 

Competition in Hamilton’s condo segment remained subdued in the third quarter. Not a single Hamilton neighbourhood was in overbidding territory when looking only at condo sales, unchanged from the previous quarter. Meanwhile, 5% of neighbourhhoods were overbid for single-family homes, down from 19% in Q2.

“Overall, bidding competition in Hamilton stands in contrast to what was most recently observed in the neighbouring GTA, where it’s now on the rise,” says Wahi CEO Benjy Katchen. As of September, 13% of GTA neighbourhoods were in overbidding territory, up from 8% in August and the first month-over-month increase since March.

Despite Widespread Underbidding, Hamilton Home Prices Remain Firm 

Although Hamilton’s bidding competition eased in Q3, the median sale price of a home is relatively flat compared to last year. In September, Hamilton’s median price of $750,000 was up about 1% from the same month in 2023.

Note that underbidding activity doesn’t necessarily mean that homes are selling at a significant discount. For example, underbidding activity can be a function of sellers listing properties at unrealistic prices. Similarly, overbidding activity may mean a hot market but it could also reflect seller decisions, such as to list homes below market value to try and attract more bids.

In general, bidding activity is a reflection of overall market behaviour, which can also be influenced by season factors. It’s not unusual for bidding activity to calm in the summer months. 
 

The Top 5 Hamilton Underbidding Neighbourhoods in Q3 2024

The leading underbidding neighbourhoods are all located outside of the old City of Hamilton’s borders, with two in Stoney Creek and three in Ancaster. These neighbourhoods all had higher median sale prices than those of the top overbidding neighbourhoods.

The Top 5 Hamilton Overbidding Neighbourhoods in Q3 2024

In addition to having lower price points than the top underbidding neighbourhoods, the top overbidding neighbourhoods in Hamilton were more widely distributed, including two in the old City of Hamilton. While these neighbourhoods were technically overbid, four out of five had a median overbid amount of less than $10,000, which suggests stability in sale prices. University Gardens, in Dundas, was the exception at a median overbid amount of $22,600.

How Wahi Ranks Hamilton’s Overbidding and Underbidding Neighbourhoods

At the end of each quarter, Wahi compares the differences between median list and sold prices to determine whether Hamilton neighbourhoods are in overbidding or underbidding territory, excluding those neighbourhoods with fewer than five transactions in a given month. A total of 130 Hamilton neighbourhoods met this threshold in Q3. Data is sourced from Information Technology Systems Ontario, the REALTORS® Association of Hamilton-Burlington, and the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board.

The top overbidding and underbidding neighbourhoods are ranked by the median overbid or underbid amount. The median overbid and underbid amounts are calculated by subtracting the list price from the sold price of each individual listing in a given neighbourhood. These are then ranked by the median of all subtractions and presented as the median overbid or underbid amount.