4 out of 5 GTA Home Sellers Are Settling for Less Than Asking

In the Greater Toronto Area’s muted housing market, demand persists in a select number of the region’s more affordably priced neighbourhoods.

By Josh Sherman | 4 minute read

At the end of each month, Wahi compares the differences between median list and sold prices to determine whether neighbourhoods are in overbidding or underbidding territory.

Another November, another fall housing market that never was for the Greater Toronto Area: nearly four out of five homes sold for less than the asking price throughout the region during the penultimate month of the year.

However, for several neighbourhoods with lower prices, there are lingering signs of stronger competition among homebuyers, according to the latest analysis from Canadian digital real estate platform and brokerage Wahi.

This November, 97% of GTA neighbourhoods with at least five home sales during the month were submerged in underbidding territory, while just 3% saw multiple offers or other negotiations drive sale prices higher. This is the second-highest share of underbidding at the neighbourhood level since Wahi began tracking bidding competition in July of 2022.

November’s numbers are little changed from the previous month, when 98% of neighbourhoods were underbid, matching all-time highs in December 2023 and January 2024. They are also comparable to last November, during which time 91% of neighbourhoods were underbid. “Prices continue to fall in the GTA, but not enough to turn the tide on the region’s overall housing-affordability challenges,” says Wahi Economist Ryan McLaughlin. 

In fact, recent analysis conducted by Wahi with Perch, a top digital mortgage platform, found that in Toronto, the median household income amounts to half of what is required to qualify for a mortgage on a typical home. “Nonetheless, certainly some homebuyers are taking advantage of lower prices, lower interest rates, and less competitive market conditions in general — particularly in more affordable pockets of the region,” McLaughlin continues.

In all but one of the nine neighbourhoods that landed in overbidding territory this November, the median list price was less than $1 million. This suggests that what competition remains in the market is concentrated in communities boasting relatively better affordability than the rest of the region.

More than half of these neighbourhoods were located within the City of Toronto, including the most overbid neighbourhood, Wychwood Park. In October, just six neighbourhoods saw home prices bid up. Based on the median underbid amount, which is used to rank neighbourhoods, homebuyers in the top five underbidding neighbourhoods saved between $16,000 up to $110,000 off the list price.

While sales in these nine neighbourhoods represent a relatively small sample size — there was an average of 12 sales across them in November — Toronto’s Leslieville stood out with 37 homes changing hands. That is the most transactions observed in a top overbidding neighbourhood for any month since Wahi began tracking bidding competition more than three years ago.

Note that a variety of factors can influence bidding trends, from seasonality to selling strategies. For instance, in some cases, REALTORS® may be more likely to price a home below market value in hopes of attracting multiple offers.

In contrast to the neighbourhoods with the strongest homebuying competition, the most underbid neighbourhoods last month had median prices between approximately $2 million up to about $4 million.

Oakville continued to have a strong presence among the GTA’s most underbid neighbourhoods. The waterfront neighbourhood of Eastlake, downtown Oakville’s neighbour to the northeast, took the number one spot. It has been in the top five for four consecutive months. It was also the most consistently underbid GTA neighbourhood last year. Eastlake appeared in the top five for 15 consecutive months over a period ending in September 2024.

Many smaller post-war homes located on larger lots have been torn down over the years, creating an inventory of harder-to-price custom luxury homes. Realtors suggest that it can be more difficult to establish a reasonable list price for a custom home due to a lack of comparable properties. 

Last month, Eastlake was followed by Southwest Oakville, making its second straight appearance in as many months in the top five. Like Eastlake, Southwest Oakville is a waterfront community neighbouring downtown Oakville with above-average home prices. In the third spot, King is another community known for upscale homes, as are the two entries from the City of Toronto (Lawrence Park and Casa Loma).

Nearly 4-out-of-5 GTA Home Sellers Settled for Less Than Asking in November

When looking at all transactions regardless of neighbourhood, Wahi found that 78% of homes that changed hands in November did so for less than the list price, up from 72% a year ago. An additional 19% sold for above asking, and in 3% of sales, the seller obtained the list price.

The share of homes selling for less than asking varied depending on location, as some regional markets held up better than others. For example, Durham was somewhat of an outlier with 71% of homes selling for less than asking — the lowest share of below-asking sales in the GTA this November. Toronto followed at 77%, beating out York (81%) and both Halton and Peel (83% each).

Methodology: How Wahi Ranks Overbidding and Underbidding Neighbourhoods

At the end of each month, Wahi compares the differences between median list and sold prices to determine whether neighbourhoods are in overbidding or underbidding territory, excluding those neighbourhoods with fewer than five transactions in a given month. A total of 280 neighbourhoods out of the GTA’s approximately 400 met this threshold in November, down from 296 in October. Data is sourced from Information Technology Systems Ontario (ITSO) and the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB).

The top overbidding and underbidding neighbourhoods are ranked by the median overbid or underbid amount. The median overbid and underbid amounts are calculated by subtracting the list price from the sold price of each individual listing in a given neighbourhood. These are then ranked by the median of all subtractions and presented as the median overbid or underbid amount. For the latest data on overbidding and underbidding at any point in the month, Wahi’s Market Pulse tool provides readings based on the past 30 days of transactions.