The Greater Toronto Area’s Housing Market Stalls

The slow start to spring in the Greater Toronto Area wasn’t limited to the weather, as the real estate market showed signs of chilliness, too.

By Josh Sherman | 4 minute read

At the end of each month, digital real estate platform Wahi compares the differences between median list and sold prices to determine whether neighbourhoods are in overbidding or underbidding territory.

An earlier glimmer of overbidding activity in the Greater Toronto Area has faded into faltering homebuying competition this March, suggests new analysis from Canadian digital real estate platform Wahi.

Some 6% of the 213 GTA neighbourhoods in which as least five homes changed hands were in overbidding territory last month, down from 7% of the 238 neighbourhoods that met the sales minimum in February. A remaining 92% of neighbourhoods across the region were in underbidding territory last month, while 2% were selling at-asking.

This was the weakest month for homebuyer competition in at least four years (Wahi began tracking overbidding/underbidding in July of 2022). The previous low for the month occurred in 2025, when 20% of GTA neighbourhoods saw prices bid up. 

“Just when it seemed like the effects of economic uncertainty may have been fading, emerging geopolitical conflict appears to be spooking markets,” says Wahi Economist Ryan McLaughlin. “Add to that the unseasonably cold weather to start spring and challenging-albeit-improved affordability, and there’s a recipe for subdued housing activity,” he adds.

Divided by housing type, single-family homes outperformed condos by a wide margin. Some 14% of the 221 GTA neighbourhoods with at least five single-family home sales were overbid, compared to 1% of the 106 neighbourhoods with five condo sales. 

Another way of gauging bidding activity is to look at what percentage of all sold listings are transacting for more than the list price. In March, 23% of all homes that sold did so for above the asking price, down from nearly one-third (31%) during the same month in 2025 — though there are some regional variations.

For instance, Durham had the highest share of above-asking sales at 31% of all sold listings, while Halton had the lowest at just 15%. “Similar to what we’ve seen at the neighbourhood level, regions with lower home prices are attracting more bidding competition than more expensive parts of the GTA,” McLaughlin explains.

The West is Best for Overbidding in March 2026 

In the first two months of the year, the strongest bidding competition was concentrated in Toronto’s east end. In March, there was a shift in the opposite direction.

Three of the top five neighbourhoods for overbidding were located in the city’s west end (Runnymede, Bloor West Village, and Trinity Bellwoods). 

The east end was still represented with Riverdale cracking the top five for the first time this year, while Rouge Woods was the lone neighbourhood outside of the City of Toronto to make the list.

Prior to March, the region’s most underbid neighbourhoods had — with only one exception — been located outside of the City of Toronto in the first two months of the year. In March, this changed, with the appearance of three centrally located and affluent Toronto neighbourhoods (Rosedale, Forest Hill, and Summerhill) in the top five.

Methodology: How Wahi Ranks Overbidding and Underbidding Neighbourhoods

At the end of each month, Wahi compares the differences between median list and sold prices to determine whether neighbourhoods are in overbidding or underbidding territory, excluding those neighbourhoods with fewer than five transactions in a given month. A total of 213 neighbourhoods out of the GTA’s approximately 400 met this threshold in March, down from 238 in February. Data is sourced from Information Technology Systems Ontario (ITSO) and the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB).

The top overbidding and underbidding neighbourhoods are ranked by the median overbid or underbid amount. The median overbid and underbid amounts are calculated by subtracting the list price from the sold price of each individual listing in a given neighbourhood. These are then ranked by the median of all subtractions and presented as the median overbid or underbid amount. For the latest data on overbidding and underbidding at any point in the month, Wahi’s Market Pulse tool provides readings based on the past 30 days of transactions.