Home-Bidding Activity Reaches a Standstill in the GTA Amid Tariff Threats

Following a pre-Spring surge, bidding activity on Greater Toronto Area homes seized up in March as the trade war between Canada and the U.S. continues.

By Josh Sherman | 4 minute read

Nearly two-thirds of Greater Toronto Area homes that changed hands in March sold for less than the asking price.

Some 20% of GTA neighbourhoods with at least five sales were in overbidding territory in March, unchanged from February and down from 43% a year ago. The majority (73%) remained in underbidding territory, with an additional 7% selling at asking.

The March freeze followed a previous surge, as the share of neighbourhoods in overbidding territory roughly doubled between January and February. The last time the majority of GTA neighbourhoods were overbid was June 2023.

“Given all the economic uncertainty, some homebuyers could be holding off on making a purchase,” says Wahi CEO Benjy Katchen. “Those who are going ahead with their homebuying plans are benefiting from less competition,” Katchen added.

In fact, when looking at all sales in the GTA in March, nearly two-thirds (65%) sold for less than the listed price. This is also unchanged from February and up from March 2024 (53%).

Other Highlights:

• In what has been an ongoing trend, condos were especially likely to sell for below asking (75%), compared to single-family homes (58%).
• Of the five regions that make up the GTA, Durham region was the most competitive, as half of the homes sold in March changed hands at (5%) or above (45%) asking.
• The softest spot was Halton region, where only one-quarter of homes sold at (3%) or above (22%) asking. 

The Top 5 GTA Overbidding Neighbourhoods in March 2025

For the first time since Wahi began tracking bidding activity in July 2022, all of the top five overbidding neighbourhoods were located in Old Toronto, which encompasses the city’s pre-amalgamation borders. Four of these neighbourhoods had a median sale price around the $1.3-million mark.

Note that when a neighbourhood is in overbidding territory, it doesn’t mean that every home is selling above-asking. Nor does it mean that buyers are paying more than a home is worth. Instead, it’s a general reflection of market behaviour, which can be influenced by seasonal factors, for example, or decisions by sellers, such as to list homes below market value to try and attract more bids.

The Top 5 GTA Underbidding Neighbourhoods in March 2025

Old Toronto was also strongly represented in the top underbidding neighbourhoods, claiming three of the top five spots. In most cases, these neighbourhoods had considerably higher price points than their overbidding counterparts.

Methodology: How Wahi Ranks Overbidding and Underbidding Neighbourhoods

At the end of each month, Wahi compares the differences between median list and sold prices to determine whether neighbourhoods are in overbidding or underbidding territory, excluding those neighbourhoods with fewer than five transactions in a given month. A total of 272 neighbourhoods out of the GTA’s approximately 400 met this threshold in March, up from 253 in February. Data is sourced from Information Technology Systems Ontario (ITSO) and the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB).

The top overbidding and underbidding neighbourhoods are ranked by the median overbid or underbid amount. The median overbid and underbid amounts are calculated by subtracting the list price from the sold price of each individual listing in a given neighbourhood. These are then ranked by the median of all subtractions and presented as the median overbid or underbid amount. For the latest data on overbidding and underbidding at any point in the month, Wahi’s Market Pulse tool provides readings based on the past 30 days of transactions.