GTA Sees Highest Underbidding for Single Family Homes in 18 Months

Single-family homes aren’t immune from the widespread underbidding trend sweeping across the Greater Toronto Area’s real estate market, suggests new analysis from Wahi.

By Josh Sherman | 4 minute read

The number of GTA neighbourhoods in overbidding territory in July amounted to only a baker’s dozen, with the vast majority seeing prices bid down.

The level of underbidding on single-family homes across the Greater Toronto Area in July increased to the highest point since January 2024 as an increasing share of properties sold below asking throughout the region. So suggests the latest monthly Market Pulse report from Wahi, a Canadian real estate listings website and app.

Some 92% of GTA neighbourhoods with at least five single-family home sales in the month of July were in underbidding territory, with the remaining 8% selling above-asking. Single-family homes include detached and semi-detached properties as well as row and townhouses.

While underbidding on condos was more prevalent — 97% of neighbourhoods in which five units changed hands last month were in underbidding territory — the gap between the two segments has been narrowing.

“The condo market’s cooldown has been grabbing headlines, but we’re seeing many buyers have recently been able to purchase a house for below asking, too,” notes Wahi Economist Ryan McLaughlin.

When looking at all property types, 95% of GTA neighbourhoods with at least five home sales recorded in July were in underbidding territory, up from 93% in June and 82% during the same month last year. An additional 4%, were in overbidding territory while 1% were selling at asking. 

Since Wahi began tracking homebuying competition in July of 2022, only December 2023 and January 2024 saw more widespread underbidding, with 98% of neighbourhoods underbid during both months.

“One difference between last month’s underbidding activity and the peak is that this time it occurred when more homes were actually selling,” says McLaughlin.

For example, in December 2023, only 122 neighbourhoods recorded five or more home sales, while that number dropped to 55 in January 2024. Last month, on the other hand, there were at least five home sales in 296 of the GTA’s approximately 400 neighbourhoods.

Note that a variety of factors can influence bidding trends, from seasonality to selling strategies. For instance, in some cases, REALTORS® may be more likely to price a home below market value in hopes of attracting multiple offers.

Ledbury Park in North York was the only holdover from the top five underbidding neighbourhoods in June, this time slipping to the fifth slot when ranked by the median underbid amount. In June, it placed third.

In July, there were no carryovers from June’s top five overbidding neighbourhoods. However, the long-run trend of the top overbidding neighbourhoods generally having lower price points than their underbidding counterparts continued. In fact, of the just 13 neighbourhoods in overbidding territory last month, all but five had a median price below the $1-million mark.

Nearly Eight-in-10 GTA Homes Sell Below Asking in July

In addition to monitoring bidding competition at the neighbourhood level, Wahi also looks at what percentage of homes in the GTA are selling for less than asking, regardless of location.

In a little more than three-quarters (76%) of the transactions that took place in July, sellers accepted less than the list price. That’s up from June, when 71% of homes sold below the asking price.

It remained more likely for condos to sell for under asking, with 80% of units changing hands for below the list price, compared to 73% of single-family homes. 

Methodology: How Wahi Ranks Overbidding and Underbidding Neighbourhoods

At the end of each month, Wahi compares the differences between median list and sold prices to determine whether neighbourhoods are in overbidding or underbidding territory, excluding those neighbourhoods with fewer than five transactions in a given month. A total of 296 neighbourhoods out of the GTA’s approximately 400 met this threshold in July, up from 289 in June. Data is sourced from Information Technology Systems Ontario (ITSO) and the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB).

The top overbidding and underbidding neighbourhoods are ranked by the median overbid or underbid amount. The median overbid and underbid amounts are calculated by subtracting the list price from the sold price of each individual listing in a given neighbourhood. These are then ranked by the median of all subtractions and presented as the median overbid or underbid amount. For the latest data on overbidding and underbidding at any point in the month, Wahi’s Market Pulse tool provides readings based on the past 30 days of transactions.