These 3 GTA Cities Are the Exception to the Spring Real Estate Chill

In most Greater Toronto Area municipalities, homes are regularly selling under asking — in some cases eight out of 10 transactions — but there are a couple of big exceptions.

By Josh Sherman | 3 minute read

Not every GTA city has been struck as hard by the underbidding trend sweeping the region.

While nearly all of the municipalities that make up the Greater Toronto Area are seeing a majority of homes sell for less than the listed price, three communities in Durham region are defying the trend.

In the cities of Ajax and Oshawa, most homes (52%) have still been changing hands for at or above the listed price this year, according to Wahi analysis of home sales data from the first quarter.

Meanwhile, in Clarington, a municipality neighbouring Oshawa on the eastern edge of the GTA, the share of homes selling at or above asking was split at 50% with those selling for less. In every other GTA town and city, the lion’s share of homes ended up selling below asking.

Wahi compared sold and list prices in all 25 of the GTA’s municipalities, as well as the City of Toronto’s six former boroughs, to rank a total of 30 communities by the percentage of below-asking sales in each.

The fact that a handful of communities in Durham are outperforming the rest of the region is at least partly a story of affordability, suggests Wahi CEO Benjy Katchen. “Durham has long been known for its relative affordability in the GTA,” he explains.

“While some homebuyers appeared to be standing on the sidelines with concerns over the economy, it looks like Durham buyers continued to take advantage of lower price points even if they paid over-asking,” Katchen continues. 

In fact, in the first quarter of the year, Oshawa had the second lowest median sale price, including condos and houses, at $753,300.

Only Brock, also in Durham, had a lower median price of $740,000, but there, 85% of homes were selling under-asking — the third highest share of any municipality. Brock also had the fewest sales of any municipality in Q1 (27). “That’s not enough activity to draw any conclusions about the local market,” Katchen points out.

If affordability is boosting sale prices in pockets of Durham, high price points appear to be doing the opposite elsewhere. King (89%) and Caledon (87%) saw the highest shares of homes selling for a price reduction, and both are on the higher end for prices.

King’s median price was $1,817,500 in Q1, the highest in the GTA by a wide margin. The next most expensive municipality was Oakville ($1,275,000), which placed fourth for below-asking sales (81%).

The pricing trend is similar to what Wahi has observed with its monthly Market Pulse reports, which gauges homebuying competition at the neighbourhood level. For example, last month, the top five GTA neighbourhoods for underbidding were generally pricier than the leading neighbourhoods for overbidding. 

While Ajax and Oshawa remained relatively stable in Q1 compared to the same time last year, the share of homes with reduced prices did rise marginally. In Ajax, it climbed by three percentage points, and in Oshawa by five percentage points.

Condos Remain the Weakest Link

Ajax and Oshawa had the lowest share of homes selling for under asking for both detached homes (45% and 47%) and condos (60% and 62%, respectively).

Note that even in these more resilient Durham markets, most condo buyers were able to purchase a unit at an amount lower than it was listed for.

This reflects broader weakness in the condo segment. In every other GTA municipality, at least two-thirds of condos were going below asking.

The detached segment has held up better generally. In six communities, including Toronto’s Scarborough and York areas, most detached homes commanded a higher sale price than listed.