Real Estate in Canadian Ski Destinations Is Expected to Heat Up

Demand for cabins and chalets in Canadian winter wonderlands are going to snowball next year, a new forecast from Royal LePage suggests.

By Josh Sherman | 2 minute read

Real estate values in B.C. and Ontario’s winter getaways are poised to climb higher next year.

It’s been a frosty year for home prices and sales in most of Canada’s most popular winter vacation destinations, but this segment of the country’s recreational-property market could soon begin thawing. 

So suggests the recently released Royal LePage Winter Recreational Property Report, which predicts prices for single-family homes will climb across 18 markets and four provinces that are identified as winter retreats. The national median price for these vacation properties is anticipated to reach $1,019,960 next year, up 7.5% annually. 

“For most, a winter getaway home is a ‘love-to-have’ and not a ‘must-have.’ Many recreational buyers have the patience to wait for the right property to become available or for rates to drop enough to restore their confidence in the economy,” says Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage, in the report. “With four rate cuts now under our belt, and more likely to come, the winter rec market will spring to life again,” he continues.

Out of the four provinces covered in the report, the forecast is sunniest for Ontario ski country, which according to Royal LePage encompasses the Southern Georgian Bay area, which includes Collingwood, Meaford, and Thornbury. In this area, the median price of a single-family home is expected to hit $938,300 next year, an annual increase of 10% despite currently cooler market conditions.

“Recreational buyers have yet to demonstrate a strong reaction to lower interest rates. We continue to see potential purchasers sitting on the fence, hoping to be the beneficiaries of additional cuts to borrowing costs,” reads a statement from Desmond von Teichman, broker, Royal LePage Locations North, in the report. “Looking ahead, we foresee more homebuyers moving off the sidelines as lending rates continue to ease, resulting in a steady increase to recreational prices,” he continues.

After what was a mostly “quiet year,” Shawn Woof, sales representative and senior vice president at Sotheby’s International Realty Canada, says he already began to see early signs of mounting interest in southern Ontario’s secondary-property market this fall. “As soon as Labour Day hit, there was a bit of an uptick in the secondary market,” he tells Wahi. “Whether that trend continues into the springtime is unknown at this point, but I suspect it will,” says Woof, who often deals in summer homes in the Muskoka region but has branched out to all-season properties in Collingwood, like this $15 million estate in the Blue Mountains.   

Following Ontario, B.C., which includes world-famous Whistler and five other sub-markets, is projected to see a median price of $1,876,182 in 2025, representing an 8.5% increase.  “The Whistler market has experienced less demand and growing inventory lately, tilting market conditions in favour of the buyer and pushing prices down,” explains Frank Ingham, associate broker, Royal LePage Sussex, in the report. “Though we have experienced less snowfall than in previous years, buyers are still attracted to the region for the prolonged biking season,” he adds. Ingham suggests another rate cut from the Bank of Canada this month would lead to a flurry of activity in Whistler.

Meanwhile, in Quebec, which lays claim to 10 of the country’s most-popular winter destinations, the median chalet price is projected to climb a slightly more modest 6% to $552,578.

The smallest gains are predicted for Alberta. If the forecasted median price of $1,728,450 proves correct, it would amount to a 3.5% rate of annual appreciation for Canmore, where the province’s winter recreation market is centred.

“Canmore continues to settle back to pre-pandemic sales volumes and price growth. Inventory levels have gradually risen this past year, yet we are still far below historical averages,” says Brad Hawker, associate broker, Royal LePage Solutions, in the report.  “This has helped to keep prices moving upward.”

For buyers who are thinking about purchasing a vacation home, Woof of Sotheby’s suggests getting in before the market heats up again. “Right now is the right time to purchase, because in some segments you’ve got more inventory on the market, therefore you can be more discerning about your choices — especially in luxury — and you have a little bit more negotiating power at the table,” he adds.