This Is How Much Home Insurance Is Surging in Flood-Prone Ontario Markets

A new joint study from Wahi and MyChoice reveals how insurance premiums have been rushing higher in some of Ontario’s flooding hot spots.

By Josh Sherman | 4 minute read

Home insurance rates have rushed upwards of 20% since 2024 in some of Ontario’s most flood-prone housing markets, including some pockets of the Greater Toronto Area.

These are among the key findings from new co-authored analysis from Wahi, a leading Canadian real estate platform, and MyChoice, a top insurance-rate aggregator. 

The report’s findings arrive at a time when Canada — and southern Ontario, in particular — is grappling with increasingly frequent heavy rainfalls. These storms are causing billions of dollars of damage annually, making flooding the country’s most destructive natural disaster. Over a two-day period in the summer of 2024, flash floods resulted in $940 million in insured damage. 

Given the intensity and frequency of these natural disasters — as well as their financial and other impacts on homeowners — Wahi and MyChoice’s latest analysis compares average annual home insurance premiums across dozens of the province’s largest cities, specifically focusing on those with the highest scores on Natural Resources Canada’s Flood Susceptibility Index.

Of the 22 markets that had flood risk scores of at least 3.0 out of a possible 5.0 points, Ajax experienced the highest home insurance inflation, surging 26% between 2024 and 2026. The city also had the highest flood risk score in the province (4.6), far above the provincial average (3.4).

Brockville and Burlington were the only other cities with flood risk scores north of 3.0 and home insurance inflation of 20% or more. In Brockville, which had a flood risk score of 3.8, the average insurance premium has surged 21%, while in Burlington, where the flood risk score was 3.6, premiums increased by 20%.

“Cost of living is understandably top of mind for Ontarians, but it’s worth noting that the actual amount being paid in dollars on home insurance in many markets may be less than you think,” says Wahi Economist Ryan McLaughlin.

Annual home insurance costs were well below $2,000 in the most flood-prone markets, with Toronto being the most expensive ($1,875) and Brampton the least expensive ($1,136). “The average Ontario household pays less than $1,500 per year on home insurance,” McLaughlin points out.

Northern Ontario Home Insurance Inflation Outpaces the Flood-Prone South 

Looking at all 38 major cities, even greater insurance premium inflation was observed in northern Ontario. This occurred despite generally lower flood risk scores. For example, premiums soared 31% in Thunder Bay and 27% in North Bay, though these markets had flood risk scores of 2.6 and 1.8, respectively.

Elevated insurance premiums in northern Ontario may have more to do with factors other than exposure to floods. For instance, labour and material costs can be higher in more remote regions, putting upward pressure on insurance.

Note that northern Ontario markets may also face higher risks associated with wildfires than their counterparts in the south of the province. Previous Wahi and MyChoice analysis found that wildfires were driving Canadian homeownership costs higher, including in northern Ontario.

Regardless of the cause for these insurance spikes, to gauge how rising premiums are more broadly affecting affordability across Ontario, Wahi also calculated an insurance-to-mortgage payment ratio for each market. The ratio represents average home insurance premiums as a percentage of typical mortgage payments in 30-plus markets. 

The results demonstrate how insurance is more of a burden relative to overall housing costs in some of the province’s more affordable markets. For instance, in Sault Ste. Marie, Thunder Bay, and North Bay, the average premium works out to approximately a tenth of the monthly mortgage payment — or more. 
In Sault Ste. Marie, home insurance premiums represent 12% of the mortgage payments on the average home (based on the RPS-Wahi Home Value Estimate for the city). In Thunder Bay and North Bay, home insurance premiums equal 11% and 9% of mortgage costs, respectively. 

Methodology

The report examined home insurance premiums across 39 Ontario cities and municipalities, comparing 2024 and 2026 data. For consistency, MyChoice focused on quotes reflecting a standardized homeowner profile: a 35-year-old male or female with a clean claim history, currently insured, non-smoker, living in a semi-detached or detached three-to-four bedroom home (2,000–2,500 square feet). Each property was assumed to have monitored fire and burglar alarms, at least one fire extinguisher, a $1,000 deductible, $1,000,000 liability coverage, and an Enhanced Water Protection package.

The monthly insurance-to-mortgage payment ratio for each city was calculated factoring in local home values, standard mortgage assumptions (five-year fixed term, 20% downpayment, and prevailing interest rates in 2024 and 2026), and average home insurance premiums. Home value estimates were sourced from the RPS-Wahi House Price Index for March 2026 and March 2024.