‘A Crucial Reset Year’: Canadian Real Estate Predictions for 2026

Market-watchers expect a modestly better showing from the Canadian housing market this year, though some markets may see further price declines.

By Josh Sherman | 5 minute read

More than one real estate industry leader Wahi spoke to suggests the Canadian housing market has hit bottom.

It’s just days into the new year, and already market-watchers have been busy setting predictions for Canada’s housing market, with more than one anticipating that 2026 will be a somewhat stronger year for both prices and sales.

“Very likely, house prices will go up,” Patrick Perrier, director of forecasting, at Scotiabank, tells Wahi. “The house price growth we might see, however, would still be modest,” he adds.

Nationally, Perrier expects home prices to roughly keep pace with inflation, a tick above 2%, accompanied by a modest increase in sales. This is roughly in line with the results of Royal LePage’s 2026 Market Survey Forecast, which predicts home prices will have edged up 1% on a year-over-year by the fourth quarter.

Royal LePage — which dubs 2026 “a crucial reset year for Canada’s housing market” — suggests lower interest rates, a wide array of listings to choose from, and reduced bidding competition should attract more homebuyers back to the market.

“First-time buyers and those searching in the country’s most expensive regions have a rare window to act on their home ownership plans at reduced prices,” says Phil Soper, Royal LePage’s president and chief executive officer, in the survey report.

“While we don’t expect a sharp rebound, this improved affordability will rebuild market confidence among both buyers and sellers, setting the stage for more sustainable, albeit modest, price growth in 2026,” adds Soper. 

Divergence in the Prairies to Persist 

 Calgary started the year as one of the strongest housing markets in the country, posting double-digit annual price growth on the RPS-Wahi House Price Index.

However, as the year progressed, the market stabilized. Meantime, certain other secondary markets, including Regina and Winnipeg, picked up the slack and proved to be among the country’s most resilient housing markets in 2025.

This year won’t look so different, according to Royal LePage. Sustained stability is expected in Calgary, with prices rising 1.5% in Q4.

“While activity has slowed from last year, it is still tracking above the 10-year average, supported by continued interprovincial migration from British Columbia and Ontario, and a local economy that is expected to outperform national growth,” says Corinne Lyall, broker and owner, Royal LePage Benchmark, in the forecast report. 

“Looking ahead, Calgary’s housing market is expected to remain consistent and balanced through next spring, with sales activity improving and home prices increasing modestly in 2026, driven by strong demand for detached homes,” Lyall continues.

While the real estate company anticipates Winnipeg to soften a bit and match Calgary’s gains, Regina is forecast to once again outperform most other major markets. Royal LePage anticipates a 4% annual increase in home prices. 

Quebec City to Claim the Housing Crown… Again  

Normally, December is the quietest month of the year for Quebec City-based Realtor Bryan Peladeau. The co-owner of Péladeau Real Estate Agency says he usually wraps up work and goes on vacation early as the market dies down. But the past 12 months have been anything but normal for real estate in Quebec’s capital.

“It’s totally the opposite this year,” said Péladeau in a mid-December interview with Wahi. 

Housing demand in the city — which has consistently been Canada’s hottest housing market this year — doesn’t appear to be fading. By the first week of this past December, Peladeau had already sold four homes. With so many homebuyers active so late in the year, Peladeau anticipates that 2026 is going to be another strong one for Quebec City, which has seen the strongest annual price gains of any major market tracked by the RPS-Wahi House Price Index this year.

In November, the index price of a Quebec City home was up 12% compared to a year prior. “I think that in 2026, it’s going to be pretty much the same. That’s what we expect,” says Peladeau.

That’s also Royal LePage’s call in its latest Market Survey Forecast. Quebec City home prices are expected to climb 12% this year, the largest increase out of all of the 10 cities analyzed by Royal LePage.

Market-watchers tell Wahi that a medley of population growth, relative affordability, and a better-than-expected labour market has supported homebuying activity in the city, which has traditionally been one of Canada’s quieter housing markets.

If Royal LePage’s forecast proves correct, Montreal should see the second largest price gains at 5%. 

Slump Continues for the Most Expensive Canadian Housing Markets  

While affordability has been a common denominator for the Canadian housing market’s strongest regions in the past year, the opposite has defined its weak spots.

Toronto and Vancouver, which are saddled with the highest housing costs in the country, experienced the largest declines in home prices in 2025 — and industry leaders suggest neither market has hit bottom yet.

By the end of this year’s fourth quarter, Royal LePage forecasts prices falling another 4.5% in the Greater Toronto Area and by 3.5% in Greater Vancouver. 

The GTA’s recessionary condo segment has weighed heavily on the region’s housing market. Units that developers began constructing amid the pandemic boom continue to reach completion, elevating inventory levels in an already saturated marketplace.

“There’s clearly a lot of supply,” says Perrier, the forecasting director from Scotiabank. “It will take a while before these units get absorbed,” he adds.

Vancouver’s condo market hasn’t been hit quite as hard as Toronto’s, but hesitation among would-be homebuyers has been a defining trait of the region’s real estate market.

​​“When we look at why buyers are hesitating, two groups stand out: those concerned about the broader economy, and those trying to time the market for a better deal,” says  Randy Ryalls, managing broker, Royal LePage Sterling Realty, in the Market Survey Forecast.

“With plenty of inventory available and prices edging downward, there is little urgency for buyers to move quickly. In this environment, many feel comfortable waiting, watching and weighing their options before making a decision.”

Elsewhere on the west coast, Victoria should continue “moving sideways,” suggests Dirk VanderWal, chair of the Victoria Real Estate Board.

In recent years, prices and sales in Victoria have remained relatively flat, and VanderWal doesn’t foresee that changing any time soon. “We may see inventory continue to climb a bit in the new year,” he adds, noting, “we tend to be less volatile than other markets.”