What’s Going on With the 2025 Fall Canadian Housing Market?

It’s hardly been a roaring start to the fall homebuying season this year, but more affordable housing markets have seen the most activity so far. 

By Josh Sherman | 2 minute read

There was an uptick in sales activity in Toronto this September, but the market remains one of the weakest in the country this autumn. 

“Low-key” is how a leading economist at one of Canada’s biggest banks would describe the beginning of the fall housing market this year.

“The kick-off into the fall season for Canada’s housing market has been notably subdued, reflecting cautious sentiment that continues to characterize buyer behaviour across the country,” writes Robert Hogue, assistant chief economist at RBC, in a recent report.

“Early September data from local real estate boards reveal a mixed picture that underscores diverging regional dynamics shaping the national landscape,” continues Hogue, who was also a recent contributor to Wahi’s ongoing Rate Outlook Panel, which asks real estate market-watchers to forecast where interest rates are headed. 

With a few exceptions — notably, Regina, Toronto, and Winnipeg — seasonally adjusted home sales generally trended modestly lower in September compared to the previous month.

In particular, higher supply levels in markets across Alberta, B.C., and Ontario have homebuyers standing on the sidelines. “The prospect of further price declines also sets up a wait-and-see approach,” explains Hogue, who expects this holding pattern to persist through to the new year.

In some markets, such as Toronto, a full-scale correction in the condo segment is underway, but in others, declining sales represent a shift towards more sustainable activity levels after previous highs.

“It’s no question that we’ve seen sales activity has slowed this year,” Ann-Marie Lurie, chief economist of the Calgary Real Estate Board, tells Wahi. “We’re seeing that demand is really just returning to more normal levels,” she notes.

The Canadian housing markets that have generally performed the strongest so far this fall have tended to be those with lower home prices, Bryan Yu, chief economist at Central 1 Credit Union, tells Wahi. “There has been a big affordability factor here,” he says. “More affordable markets have done relatively well in this environment, and high-priced markets have not,” he says.

“When you look at where things are really weak, it’s still Vancouver, Toronto, the B.C. markets, and the Ontario markets,” Yu explains. “Even if we’re seeing that softening around some of the other markets in Alberta… they’re still pretty robust,” he adds. “Calgary is pretty in-line with longer-term trends.”

As for the recent uptick in home sales in Toronto, Yu suggests this may have to do partly with lower interest rates. Midway through last month, the Bank of Canada trimmed its key interest rate by 25 basis points, which could boost homebuyer optimism. Meanwhile, some concern has also eased around economic uncertainty due to strained trade relations with the U.S. as

However, as Hogue notes in the RBC report, the index price of a Toronto home has still fallen 5.5% over the last year and remains 25% below the early-2022 market peak.

If interest rates continue to decline, Yu expects Canada’s hardest-hit markets, including Toronto and Vancouver to gain more momentum, but don’t expect a full-blown rebound to happen overnight — or this fall, for that matter. “It’s going to take more than that,” he says. 

With major condo markets remaining significantly oversupplied today, new-housing construction in Toronto and Vancouver has all but ground to a halt. When demand does return, there won’t be the inventory to meet pent-up demand. “That should be another factor driving longer-term [sales] activity,” he concludes.