Share of GTA Overbid Neighbourhoods Doubles in February Despite Market Slump

One-in-five GTA neighbourhoods landed in overbidding territory this February, with competition among homebuyers reaching an eight-month high.

By Josh Sherman | 3 minute read

Bidding activity picked up in the GTA last month, though the vast majority of homes are still selling for less than the asking price.

It may have been a chilly February for Greater Toronto Area home sales and prices overall, but there was some indication of more widespread bidding competition among homebuyers who dipped their toes in the market last month.

The share of Greater Toronto Area neighbourhoods in overbidding territory roughly doubled between January and February, new analysis from digital real estate platform Wahi suggests.

In February, 51 neighbourhoods (20%) with at least five home sales were in overbidding territory, compared to 26 (11%) in January. This is the highest level of overbidding activity since June 2024, when 82 neighbourhoods (27%) overbid.

Although overbidding surged within the first two months of the year, a total of 194 neighbourhoods (77%) remained in underbidding territory in February, while another eight (3%) saw homes selling at the asking price.

“The rise in bidding activity is encouraging, but it’s not unusual to see swings in the market ahead of the normally busy spring homebuying season,” says Wahi CEO Benjy Katchen. Last year, he notes, the share of neighbourhoods in overbidding territory leapt from 0% to 25% between January and February. “Although there were signs of a more competitive GTA housing market this February, buyers were still in command overall,” Katchen continues.

Both sales and prices were down on a year-over-year basis. The median price of a GTA home in February was $940,000, a 4% decline from a year ago. Meanwhile, a total of 3,977 homes sold across the GTA in February, representing a 30% decline from the same time last year.

Nearly two-thirds (65%) of all homes that changed hands across the region last month sold for less than the asking price. While below-asking sales maintained a strong majority in February, the share of these transactions was down from 74% in January. 

Last month’s increase in the number of homes selling above asking was driven by the single-family home segment, which includes detached and semi-detached homes as well as town and row houses. Some 39% of single-family homes sold for more than the asking price last month, a substantial increase from 26% in January.

Bidding activity in the condo market remains subdued. Fewer than one-in-five condos (19%) sold above asking in February, compared to 16% in January. “For now, it remains a tale of two markets in the GTA. Competition for single-family homes is much stronger than demand for condos,” says Katchen. “Looking ahead, we’ll be watching to see whether the reality of U.S. tariffs impacts homebuyer plans and changes the storyline,” he adds.

The Top 5 GTA Overbidding Neighbourhoods in February 2025

Median overbid amounts, which the top overbidding neighbourhoods are ranked by, were generally much higher in February, with four in excess of $100,000. In January, the top five median overbid amounts ranged from $62,000 to $97,011. Three of the most overbid neighbourhoods were located within the City of Toronto, and St. Clair West was the only neighbourhood to carryover into the top five from January. 

Note that when a neighbourhood is in overbidding territory, it doesn’t mean that every home is selling above-asking. Nor does it mean that buyers are paying more than a home is worth. Instead, it’s a general reflection of market behaviour, which can be influenced by seasonal factors, for example, or decisions by sellers, such as to list homes below market value to try and attract more bids.

The Top 5 GTA Underbidding Neighbourhoods in February 2025

Eastlake, the most consistently underbid GTA neighbourhood in 2024, makes its first appearance in the monthly top five this year. The top underbid neighbourhoods had much higher price points than those that were most overbid. 

Methodology: How Wahi Ranks Overbidding and Underbidding Neighbourhoods

At the end of each month, Wahi compares the differences between median list and sold prices to determine whether neighbourhoods are in overbidding or underbidding territory, excluding those neighbourhoods with fewer than five transactions in a given month. A total of 253 neighbourhoods out of the GTA’s approximately 400 met this threshold in February, up from 236 in January. Data is sourced from Information Technology Systems Ontario (ITSO) and the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB).

The top overbidding and underbidding neighbourhoods are ranked by the median overbid or underbid amount. The median overbid and underbid amounts are calculated by subtracting the list price from the sold price of each individual listing in a given neighbourhood. These are then ranked by the median of all subtractions and presented as the median overbid or underbid amount. For the latest data on overbidding and underbidding at any point in the month, Wahi’s Market Pulse tool provides readings based on the past 30 days of transactions.