Alberta Forecasted to Lead the Way in Home Price Increases for 2024

A number of factors are contributing to the rise in Alberta’s home prices —  particularly in cities like Calgary and Edmonton.

By Brett Surbey | 3 minute read

Alberta’s homes are expected to rise over 8% this year, potentially due to a supply starved market with increasing demand.

Albertans like to be the best at things. We call the Calgary Stampede the “Greatest Show on Earth,” we revel in our reputation for outstanding beef, and we pat ourselves on the back for our work ethic. 

And — this year at least — we get to say we are the leaders when it comes to housing price increases. 

Well, potentially. 

According to the Canadian Real Estate Association’s (CREA) quarterly forecast from July, “The national average home price is forecast to climb 2.5% on an annual basis to $694,393 in 2024,” adding that, “The national average home price is forecast to rise by 5% from 2024 to $729,319 in 2025.”

Compared to the national average, Alberta is looking to nearly quadruple that increase this year. Home prices are forecast to increase 8.1% in Alberta, outpacing both Ontario at 0.9% and British Columbia at 4.4%. The next closest province to come anywhere near Alberta’s price gains is New Brunswick at 6%. So why is Alberta standing out like a sore, expensive thumb?

One indicator is Canada’s overall housing supply levels. As the CREA report states, “Since CREA’s last forecast in April, expectations around interest rate cuts this year have been dialed back. Supply has also built up by more than expected as large numbers of sellers came to the market with properties for sale in the spring; however, buyers remained on the sidelines.”

Supply Constraints a Factor in Calgary and Edmonton

According to Royal LePage’s House Price Survey released on July 11, Calgary’s aggregate home price increased 7.9% year over year (YoY) to $694,000. Single-family detached homes shot up even more: up 8.3% YoY to $797,200. Edmonton saw smaller gains with aggregate prices only increasing, “3.7 per cent year over year to $450,600” and detached homes jumping up, “5.5 per cent year over year to $497,200 in the second quarter,” according to Royal LePage.

In both of these Wild Rose cities, supply constraints are a major factor. Low supply is especially noticeable in active markets, which Alberta certainly falls into. According to CREA’s release, Alberta’s home sales activity is expected to rise to 9.1%, meaning over 84,000 homes may change hands this year. This number is 3% higher than the national average of 6.1%. 

Calgary is facing multiple offer scenarios with less supply available than in other cities. “Sales activity remains strong in Calgary, with many homebuyers competing for properties in multiple-offer scenarios,” says Royal LePage broker Corinne Lyall, adding that, “Inventory has seen some recent growth, but not enough to keep up with current demand levels.”

Calgary’s supply levels across all housing types have consistently been sitting around one month’s worth, Lyall also notes in the report. 

Edmonton, though facing smaller price increases, is also suffering from supply scarcity. “The first half of the year has been very strong in terms of sales activity, and I expect we will even surpass the high volume of transactions recorded during the height of the pandemic real estate boom…were it not for the constraints of extremely low supply, we’d likely see even more deals getting done,” says Tom Shearer, a Royal LePage broker.

Shearer also notes that newcomers from around the nation migrating to Alberta are contributing to the price increases, and that employment opportunities in the oil and gas industry aren’t the only reason for the migration –  lifestyle and affordability are also factors. And more people means more demand. “Newcomers to the province – both from inter-provincial migration and international immigration – continue to drive demand and price appreciation in the city centre and surrounding regions.”