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Wahi speaks with Ben Myers, president and founder of Bullpen Consulting, about the current state of the GTA<\/a> housing market \u2014 and where it\u2019s headed.<\/span><\/p>\n [\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.24.2″ _module_preset=”default” text_font_size=”21px” text_line_height=”1.6em” header_2_font=”||||||||” header_2_font_size=”36px” header_2_line_height=”1.3em” header_3_font_size=”1.25rem” header_3_line_height=”1.88rem” header_4_font=”|700|||||||” header_4_font_size=”1.25rem” header_4_line_height=”1.88rem” custom_margin=”||11px|||” text_font_size_tablet=”21px” text_font_size_phone=”16px” text_font_size_last_edited=”on|phone” header_2_font_size_tablet=”36px” header_2_font_size_phone=”25px” header_2_font_size_last_edited=”on|phone” global_colors_info=”{}”]<\/p>\n By Josh Sherman<\/a>\u00a0<\/span>| 2 minute read<\/p>\n [\/et_pb_text][et_pb_post_title title=”off” author=”off” date_format=”M j” categories=”off” comments=”off” featured_image=”off” _builder_version=”4.18.0″ _module_preset=”default” custom_margin=”||26px|||” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/et_pb_post_title][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section][et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ _builder_version=”4.18.0″ _module_preset=”default” custom_padding=”0px||3px|||” da_disable_devices=”off|off|off” locked=”off” global_colors_info=”{}” da_is_popup=”off” da_exit_intent=”off” da_has_close=”on” da_alt_close=”off” da_dark_close=”off” da_not_modal=”on” da_is_singular=”off” da_with_loader=”off” da_has_shadow=”on”][et_pb_row _builder_version=”4.18.0″ _module_preset=”default” width_tablet=”” width_phone=”100%” width_last_edited=”on|desktop” custom_padding=”0px||9px|||” global_colors_info=”{}” width__hover_enabled=”off|desktop”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”4.18.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_image src=”https:\/\/wahi.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Ben-Myers.jpg” alt=”The number of homes on the market continues to climb in major Canadian cities giving some buyers a shot at a discount.” title_text=”Ben-Myers” align=”center” force_fullwidth=”on” _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”default” custom_margin=”1px||29px|||” hover_enabled=”0″ border_radii=”on|32px|32px|32px|32px” border_radii_tablet=”on|32px|32px|32px|32px” border_radii_phone=”on|0px|0px|0px|0px” border_radii_last_edited=”on|desktop” global_colors_info=”{}” sticky_enabled=”0″][\/et_pb_image][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”default” text_font_size=”1.13rem” text_line_height=”1.75rem” custom_margin=”-18px||2px|||” custom_padding=”||7px||false|true” custom_padding_tablet=”||7px||false|true” custom_padding_phone=”|15px|7px|15px|false|true” custom_padding_last_edited=”on|phone” hover_enabled=”0″ text_font_size_tablet=”1.13rem” text_font_size_phone=”0.9rem” text_font_size_last_edited=”on|phone” locked=”off” global_colors_info=”{}” sticky_enabled=”0″]<\/p>\n Ben Myers has more than 20 years of experience in the real estate<\/a> industry.<\/span><\/p>\n [\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section][et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ _builder_version=”4.18.0″ _module_preset=”default” min_height=”791.1px” custom_padding=”32px||23px|||” da_disable_devices=”off|off|off” locked=”off” global_colors_info=”{}” da_is_popup=”off” da_exit_intent=”off” da_has_close=”on” da_alt_close=”off” da_dark_close=”off” da_not_modal=”on” da_is_singular=”off” da_with_loader=”off” da_has_shadow=”on”][et_pb_row _builder_version=”4.18.0″ _module_preset=”default” custom_padding=”0px||0px|||” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”4.18.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.24.2″ _module_preset=”default” text_font_size=”21px” text_line_height=”1.6em” header_2_font=”||||||||” header_2_font_size=”36px” header_2_line_height=”1.3em” header_3_font_size=”1.25rem” header_3_line_height=”1.88rem” header_4_font=”|700|||||||” header_4_font_size=”1.25rem” header_4_line_height=”1.88rem” min_height=”765.1px” custom_margin=”||-48px|||” custom_padding=”6px||68px|||” text_font_size_tablet=”21px” text_font_size_phone=”16px” text_font_size_last_edited=”on|phone” header_2_font_size_tablet=”36px” header_2_font_size_phone=”25px” header_2_font_size_last_edited=”on|phone” global_colors_info=”{}”]<\/p>\n As the president and founder of <\/span>Bullpen Consulting<\/span><\/a>, Ben Myers advises real estate developers and lenders on the viability of new housing projects. While he primarily focuses on the high-rise pre-construction market, that segment doesn\u2019t exist in a vacuum. What\u2019s happening in the new condo market has knock-on effects for the resale market \u2014 and vice versa.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n We recently sat down with Myers to learn about the interplay between the new and resale markets, what to expect looking forward, and more.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n <\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/span><\/p>\n <\/span><\/p>\n <\/span><\/p>\n <\/span><\/p>\n <\/span><\/p>\n <\/span><\/p>\n Wahi: Some of the numbers coming from the GTA housing market are staggering. There were fewer than 500 new condo sales in the Greater Toronto<\/a> and Hamilton Area in Q3, according to a report from Zonda Urban. That\u2019s fewer than 500 sales in a region that\u2019s home to seven million people. <\/b><\/strong>Before we look ahead, can you describe what\u2019s been going with new condos for the past year or so to provide some context?<\/b><\/strong><\/p>\n <\/b><\/strong><\/p>\n <\/b><\/strong><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/b><\/strong><\/p>\n <\/b><\/strong><\/p>\n <\/b><\/strong><\/p>\n <\/b><\/strong><\/p>\n Ben Myers: <\/b>Last year had less than 5,000 new condo sales. If we look back a few years, it was 35,000 during the peak of the market. So it\u2019s been a significant dropoff and probably the worst since the mid-1990s and the recession \u2014 before my time in the housing market and before the time of many of the developers who are active in the marketplace.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/span><\/p>\n Now we\u2019ve run into a period where investors are completely out of the new condominium market, so we\u2019re seeing extremely low levels of sales. I think this is unfortunately going to be something that lingers for many years.<\/p>\n It\u2019s going back 10 years, when investors started to buy condos solely for capital appreciation. They no longer worked as delivering cash flow on a monthly basis. It was only a matter of time before prices couldn\u2019t continue to go up, and the gap between the price of a new condominium and the price of a resale started to get to 25%, 30%, 35%. When it was 10 to 15%, that made a lot of sense. A building\u2019s going to take three-to-four years to complete, the markets going up 3%-7% annually, so they buy a unit and it\u2019s worth more when they take occupancy.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n But that is no longer the case because of the bubble-like growth we experienced in 2021 and early-2022, so it\u2019s going to be a pretty long process before developers can get pricing down to a level that entices investors.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Wahi: Could the cratering new condo market end up benefiting the resale market? When investors do come back, will they opt for existing homes because of the lower price points? And could this renew the struggling resale condo market?<\/b><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n It\u2019s always difficult to tell. The resale condo market tends to lead the new condo market. When investors start to jump back in the market, it\u2019s because the resale market has shown some resilience. Really, the only recent example is the global financial crisis going back to 2009, when there were 900 sales in Q1 of 2009 as the world was experiencing the aftermath of syndicate mortgages and all that fun stuff. But in the second quarter of 2009, the resale market set a record for transactions. So it really came right out of the shoot. We were much better prepared for what was happening in the mortgage market \u2014 obviously we had more conservative underwriting from our lenders \u2014 and that led to a strong second half in 2009 of 10,000 sales. <\/span> \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n So for the future of resale, it\u2019s really almost running on a four or five year cycle. We had really strong sales in 2021 and early 2022. We won\u2019t actually start to see those buildings \u2014 some of the stuff that happened at the peak of the market \u2014 completed until 2026. Sales were slow in the second half of 2022, bad in 2023, and terrible in 2024. <\/span><\/h2>\n
It really was a \u2014 I\u2019ve been saying \u2014 a toxic soup of things that happened with COVID, emergency-level low interest rates, product inflation due to COVID, [and] major increases in the taxes that are charged on new developments. Most people are not aware that on the average new condo, 30% of the cost goes to government fees and taxes. So $150,000 on a $500,000 condominium goes to various levels of the government. The city increased those at one point in time 46% in a single year<\/a> \u2014 so pretty crazy growth. Then, on top of that, as prices continued to go up, investors continued to buy and saw that as them making money when technically they were not actually making money.<\/span><\/p>\n
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<\/span>But\u2026 the bubble that we had in that 2021 and early-2022 period in the new condo market was just obscene. Pricing was going up at 30 to 40% a year and, again, the gap between what a new condo was being priced at and an equivalent resale \u2014 so something that was recently completed \u2014 could exceed 40%. <\/span>
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<\/span>Some of that was developers just saying, \u2018Hey, I can sell it for what I want.\u2019 But one of the biggest parts of the inflation was actually trade profits. The trades were seeing how fast prices were going up and how many sales were happening [and saying], \u2018Now I can charge more for my services for the build-out of a new condominium.\u2019 That will slowly start to go down as the number of cranes come down and buildings get completed.<\/span><\/p>\n
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<\/span>Fast forward to 2028, and we\u2019ll have this massive undersupply of new housing units in the marketplace which will ultimately drive up rental rates and resale pricing. I imagine a lot of investors out there will try to time the market \u2014 you know, what\u2019s the lowest point in the marketplace \u2014 and try to jump back in. Again, that\u2019s anyone\u2019s guess, but it\u2019s certainly a cyclical market.<\/span><\/p>\n