{"id":305711,"date":"2024-11-18T22:25:19","date_gmt":"2024-11-18T22:25:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wahi.com\/ca\/en\/?p=305711"},"modified":"2024-11-20T06:53:08","modified_gmt":"2024-11-20T06:53:08","slug":"trumps-election-could-impact-canadian-mortgage-rates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wahi.com\/ca\/en\/learning-centre\/real-estate-101\/buy\/trump-election-canadian-mortgage-rates\/","title":{"rendered":"How Trump\u2019s U.S. Election Win Could Impact Canadian Mortgage Rates"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Just when Canadian homebuyers and owners were getting used to a steady cycle of interest rate cuts, U.S. president-elect Donald Trump brings new uncertainty.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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By Josh Sherman<\/a>\u00a0<\/span>| 4 minute read<\/p>\n

[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_post_title title=”off” author=”off” date_format=”M j” categories=”off” comments=”off” featured_image=”off” _builder_version=”4.18.0″ _module_preset=”default” custom_margin=”||26px|||” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/et_pb_post_title][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section][et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ _builder_version=”4.18.0″ _module_preset=”default” custom_padding=”0px||3px|||” da_disable_devices=”off|off|off” locked=”off” global_colors_info=”{}” da_is_popup=”off” da_exit_intent=”off” da_has_close=”on” da_alt_close=”off” da_dark_close=”off” da_not_modal=”on” da_is_singular=”off” da_with_loader=”off” da_has_shadow=”on”][et_pb_row _builder_version=”4.18.0″ _module_preset=”default” width_tablet=”” width_phone=”100%” width_last_edited=”on|desktop” custom_padding=”0px||9px|||” global_colors_info=”{}” width__hover_enabled=”off|desktop”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”4.18.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_image src=”https:\/\/wahi.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Young-Cnd-homeowners-see-wealth-increase.jpg” alt=”The number of homes on the market continues to climb in major Canadian cities giving some buyers a shot at a discount.” title_text=”Young-Cnd-homeowners-see-wealth-increase” align=”center” force_fullwidth=”on” _builder_version=”4.24.2″ _module_preset=”default” custom_margin=”1px||29px|||” border_radii=”on|32px|32px|32px|32px” border_radii_tablet=”on|32px|32px|32px|32px” border_radii_phone=”on|0px|0px|0px|0px” border_radii_last_edited=”on|desktop” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/et_pb_image][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.24.2″ _module_preset=”default” text_font_size=”1.13rem” text_line_height=”1.75rem” custom_margin=”-18px||2px|||” custom_padding=”||7px||false|true” custom_padding_tablet=”||7px||false|true” custom_padding_phone=”|15px|7px|15px|false|true” custom_padding_last_edited=”on|phone” text_font_size_tablet=”1.13rem” text_font_size_phone=”0.9rem” text_font_size_last_edited=”on|phone” locked=”off” global_colors_info=”{}”]<\/p>\n

Tariffs on cross-border imports to the U.S. was a key pillar of Donald Trump\u2019s America First campaign, and that could have serious consequences for the Canadian mortgage market and economy at large.<\/span><\/p>\n

[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section][et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ _builder_version=”4.18.0″ _module_preset=”default” min_height=”791.1px” custom_padding=”32px||23px|||” da_disable_devices=”off|off|off” locked=”off” global_colors_info=”{}” da_is_popup=”off” da_exit_intent=”off” da_has_close=”on” da_alt_close=”off” da_dark_close=”off” da_not_modal=”on” da_is_singular=”off” da_with_loader=”off” da_has_shadow=”on”][et_pb_row _builder_version=”4.18.0″ _module_preset=”default” custom_padding=”0px||0px|||” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”4.18.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.24.2″ _module_preset=”default” text_font_size=”21px” text_line_height=”1.6em” header_2_font=”||||||||” header_2_font_size=”36px” header_2_line_height=”1.3em” header_3_font_size=”1.25rem” header_3_line_height=”1.88rem” header_4_font=”|700|||||||” header_4_font_size=”1.25rem” header_4_line_height=”1.88rem” min_height=”765.1px” custom_margin=”||-48px|||” custom_padding=”6px||68px|||” text_font_size_tablet=”21px” text_font_size_phone=”16px” text_font_size_last_edited=”on|phone” header_2_font_size_tablet=”36px” header_2_font_size_phone=”25px” header_2_font_size_last_edited=”on|phone” global_colors_info=”{}”]<\/p>\n

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Despite a <\/span>report of some mortgage rates creeping higher<\/span><\/a> following the results of the U.S. presidential election, Donald Trump\u2019s second term as commander in chief could end up having the opposite effect on borrowing costs in Canada, says one market-watcher.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe biggest unknown will be the impact to Canada’s economy from Trump,\u201d Alex Leduc, founder and CEO of Perch, a Canadian digital mortgage platform, tells Wahi.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In Leduc\u2019s view, where interest rates are headed largely boils down to whether Trump follows through on his America First rhetoric concerning protectionist policies, which <\/span>could include slapping a 10% tariff<\/span><\/a> on imports to the U.S. <\/span>
<\/span>
<\/span>\u201cIf he goes hard on tariffs and our exports suffer, then we could see rates actually get cut faster than expected. So I’d say a Trump presidency has more potential to drive down rates rather than up,\u201d Leduc explains.<\/span>
<\/span>
<\/span>As the U.S. is Canada\u2019s largest trading partner, a 10% tariff could spell trouble for the Canadian economy by reducing exports and dragging growth. In this event, Leduc sees the Bank of Canada potentially slashing the overnight rate more aggressively to stimulate the domestic economy. <\/span>
<\/span>
<\/span>Since variable mortgage rates are directly influenced by the overnight rate, they would fall lower faster. At the same time, a possibly cooler outlook for inflation due to the trade headwinds would translate to lower bond yields, a leading indicator of where fixed rates are headed.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Find the Right REALTOR\u00ae for You<\/h1>\n

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We’ll match you with a proven agent in your area.<\/p>\n

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<\/span><\/p>\n

A trade war resulting in lower rates is one possibility, but there are others.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Rob McLister, a Canadian interest rate analyst and founder of MortgageLogic.news<\/a>, lays out certain conditions that could end up triggering higher interest rates: \u201cIf Trump juices the American economy without penalizing Canada with tariffs, Canada will import inflation from the U.S.,\u201d he tells Wahi.
<\/span>
<\/span>When an economy is facing high inflation, such as during the pandemic, policymakers typically hike interest rates. They do so to rein in borrowing and spending in hopes of curbing the strong demand responsible for higher prices. Mortgage rates are no exception.<\/span>
<\/span>
<\/span>\u201cThe other factor is the U.S. debt,\u201d McLister adds. \u201cIf markets think it’s out of control, they’ll take up U.S. yields, which could drive Canadian yields somewhat higher as well.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n


Of course, McLister emphasizes that not enough time has passed to know where mortgage rates are headed. \u201cIt’s too early to tell,\u201d he says. \u201cThere are way too many wildcards,\u201d he adds.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>
<\/span><\/p>\n

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<\/span><\/p>\n

Effects Could Vary by Mortgage Type
<\/b><\/h2>\n

<\/span>
<\/span><\/p>\n

Depending on what happens stateside, it\u2019s possible that variable and fixed rates diverge. For example, the Bank of Canada could continue cutting the overnight rate while bond yields remain heightened. In this case, variable rates trend lower while fixed rates do not, which has happened several times in Canada this century. \u201cWhat we know for sure is that fixed mortgage rates can climb while variable rates drop, as they did in parts of 2003, 2008, 2009, and 2015,\u201d says McLister.<\/span>
<\/span>
<\/span>If this plays out, variable rates could once again dip below fixed rates. While the latter is currently lower, the historical norm is for variable mortgages to have a more competitive rate. \u201cThere’s a very good chance that’ll happen.\u201d<\/span>
<\/span>
<\/span>Given all the uncertainty Trump\u2019s return to office is bringing, MsLister suggests homebuyers should consider the lesser-known hybrid mortgage when shopping around. \u201cThat’s where your borrowing is part fixed and part variable. It’s a solution tailor made for uncertain times like today’s,\u201d he says. <\/span>
<\/span>
<\/span>Hybrid mortgages provide homebuyers with more flexibility than a traditional fixed or variable rate. \u201cA hybrid is like an NBA player who’s both a shooter and defender \u2014 it lets you play both sides of the court. The borrower can choose how much they want in each portion based on their five-year plan and how much financial thrill they can handle.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

To date, the effects on the mortgage market post-election have been marginal at most. McLister points out that the lowest nationally advertised rates for uninsured mortgages haven\u2019t moved since Nov. 5, the day of the election. Insured mortgages are mixed, with the lowest three-year fixed rates down 15 basis points (0.15 percentage points) and the lowest five-year up 10 basis points.<\/span><\/p>\n


McLister and Leduc both suggest markets had already priced in the possibility of Trump\u2019s victory ahead of election night.<\/p>\n

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In a report written in response to the outcome of the 59th American election, economists at BMO called the outlook<\/a> \u201ca mixed bag\u201d for Canada, noting that while \u201cCanada does have a relatively well-balanced trade with the U.S.\u201d there\u2019s lots of uncertainty around the future of that relationship. \u201cUltimately,\u201d the BMO economists write, \u201ca healthy U.S. economy is the single most important factor for Canada, regardless of who is in charge.\u201d\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n

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<\/em><\/p>\n

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Wahi Writer<\/p>\n

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