{"id":301640,"date":"2024-05-31T17:47:45","date_gmt":"2024-05-31T17:47:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wahi.com\/ca\/en\/?p=301640"},"modified":"2024-11-07T15:57:12","modified_gmt":"2024-11-07T15:57:12","slug":"are-interest-rates-finally-set-to-drop-what-experts-are-saying","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wahi.com\/ca\/en\/learning-centre\/real-estate-101\/buy\/are-interest-rates-set-to-drop\/","title":{"rendered":"Are Interest Rates Finally Set to Drop? What Experts Are Saying"},"content":{"rendered":"\n[et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ _builder_version=”4.18.0″ _module_preset=”default” custom_padding=”0px||3px|||” da_disable_devices=”off|off|off” global_colors_info=”{}” da_is_popup=”off” da_exit_intent=”off” da_has_close=”on” da_alt_close=”off” da_dark_close=”off” da_not_modal=”on” da_is_singular=”off” da_with_loader=”off” da_has_shadow=”on”][et_pb_row _builder_version=”4.20.2″ _module_preset=”default” width=”95%” max_width=”100%” custom_margin=”||-24px||false|false” custom_margin_tablet=”||-24px||false|false” custom_margin_phone=”||-34px||false|false” custom_margin_last_edited=”on|phone” custom_padding=”55px||||false|false” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”4.18.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][wahi_breadcrumb _builder_version=”4.20.2″ _module_preset=”default” custom_margin_tablet=”” custom_margin_phone=”30px||-10px||false|false” custom_margin_last_edited=”on|phone” global_colors_info=”{}”][wahi_breadcrumb-link title=”Real Estate 101″ _builder_version=”4.18.0″ _dynamic_attributes=”link_option_url” _module_preset=”default” link_option_url=”@ET-DC@eyJkeW5hbWljIjp0cnVlLCJjb250ZW50IjoicG9zdF9saW5rX3VybF9wYWdlIiwic2V0dGluZ3MiOnsicG9zdF9pZCI6IjcyMiJ9fQ==@” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/wahi_breadcrumb-link][wahi_breadcrumb-link title=”Buy” _builder_version=”4.18.0″ _dynamic_attributes=”link_option_url” _module_preset=”default” link_option_url=”@ET-DC@eyJkeW5hbWljIjp0cnVlLCJjb250ZW50IjoicG9zdF9saW5rX3VybF9wYWdlIiwic2V0dGluZ3MiOnsicG9zdF9pZCI6IjE2MzIifX0=@” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/wahi_breadcrumb-link][wahi_breadcrumb-link title=”@ET-DC@eyJkeW5hbWljIjp0cnVlLCJjb250ZW50IjoicG9zdF90aXRsZSIsInNldHRpbmdzIjp7ImJlZm9yZSI6IiIsImFmdGVyIjoiIn19@” _builder_version=”4.18.0″ _dynamic_attributes=”title” _module_preset=”default” module_text_color=”#686E6E” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/wahi_breadcrumb-link][\/wahi_breadcrumb][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][et_pb_row _builder_version=”4.20.2″ _module_preset=”default” custom_padding=”16px||4px|||” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”4.18.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.20.2″ _dynamic_attributes=”content” _module_preset=”default” header_font_size=”3.5rem” header_line_height=”4.5rem” header_font_size_tablet=”42px” header_font_size_phone=”1.5rem” header_font_size_last_edited=”on|phone” header_line_height_tablet=”3.5rem” header_line_height_phone=”2.1rem” header_line_height_last_edited=”on|desktop” global_colors_info=”{}”]@ET-DC@eyJkeW5hbWljIjp0cnVlLCJjb250ZW50IjoicG9zdF90aXRsZSIsInNldHRpbmdzIjp7ImJlZm9yZSI6IjxoMT4iLCJhZnRlciI6IjwvaDE+In19@[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][et_pb_row _builder_version=”4.18.0″ _module_preset=”default” custom_padding=”1px||1px|||” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”4.18.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][wahi_socialsharing _builder_version=”4.18.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/wahi_socialsharing][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][et_pb_row _builder_version=”4.18.0″ _module_preset=”default” custom_padding=”15px||0px|||” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”4.18.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.20.2″ _module_preset=”default” text_font_size=”21px” text_line_height=”1.6em” header_2_font=”||||||||” header_2_font_size=”36px” header_2_line_height=”1.3em” header_3_font_size=”1.25rem” header_3_line_height=”1.88rem” header_4_font=”|700|||||||” header_4_font_size=”1.25rem” header_4_line_height=”1.88rem” text_font_size_tablet=”21px” text_font_size_phone=”16px” text_font_size_last_edited=”on|desktop” header_2_font_size_tablet=”36px” header_2_font_size_phone=”25px” header_2_font_size_last_edited=”on|phone” locked=”off” global_colors_info=”{}”]

The Bank of Canada is keeping everybody guessing with its next scheduled interest-rate announcement looming, and top economists have differing opinions.<\/span><\/p>[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.24.2″ _module_preset=”default” text_font_size=”21px” text_line_height=”1.6em” header_2_font=”||||||||” header_2_font_size=”36px” header_2_line_height=”1.3em” header_3_font_size=”1.25rem” header_3_line_height=”1.88rem” header_4_font=”|700|||||||” header_4_font_size=”1.25rem” header_4_line_height=”1.88rem” custom_margin=”||11px|||” text_font_size_tablet=”21px” text_font_size_phone=”16px” text_font_size_last_edited=”on|phone” header_2_font_size_tablet=”36px” header_2_font_size_phone=”25px” header_2_font_size_last_edited=”on|phone” global_colors_info=”{}”]

By Josh Sherman<\/a>\u00a0<\/span>| 3 minute read<\/p>[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_post_title title=”off” author=”off” date_format=”M j” categories=”off” comments=”off” featured_image=”off” _builder_version=”4.18.0″ _module_preset=”default” custom_margin=”||26px|||” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/et_pb_post_title][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section][et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ _builder_version=”4.18.0″ _module_preset=”default” custom_padding=”0px||3px|||” da_disable_devices=”off|off|off” locked=”off” global_colors_info=”{}” da_is_popup=”off” da_exit_intent=”off” da_has_close=”on” da_alt_close=”off” da_dark_close=”off” da_not_modal=”on” da_is_singular=”off” da_with_loader=”off” da_has_shadow=”on”][et_pb_row _builder_version=”4.18.0″ _module_preset=”default” width_tablet=”” width_phone=”100%” width_last_edited=”on|desktop” custom_padding=”0px||9px|||” global_colors_info=”{}” width__hover_enabled=”off|desktop”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”4.18.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_image src=”@ET-DC@eyJkeW5hbWljIjp0cnVlLCJjb250ZW50IjoicG9zdF9mZWF0dXJlZF9pbWFnZSIsInNldHRpbmdzIjp7fX0=@” align=”center” force_fullwidth=”on” _builder_version=”4.18.0″ _dynamic_attributes=”src” _module_preset=”default” custom_margin=”1px||29px|||” border_radii=”on|32px|32px|32px|32px” border_radii_tablet=”on|32px|32px|32px|32px” border_radii_phone=”on|0px|0px|0px|0px” border_radii_last_edited=”on|desktop” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/et_pb_image][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.24.2″ _module_preset=”default” text_font_size=”1.13rem” text_line_height=”1.75rem” custom_margin=”-18px||2px|||” custom_padding=”||7px||false|true” custom_padding_tablet=”||7px||false|true” custom_padding_phone=”|15px|7px|15px|false|true” custom_padding_last_edited=”on|phone” hover_enabled=”0″ text_font_size_tablet=”1.13rem” text_font_size_phone=”0.9rem” text_font_size_last_edited=”on|phone” locked=”off” global_colors_info=”{}” sticky_enabled=”0″]

Nobody has a crystal ball when it comes to where interest rates are headed, but economists provide important context for whatever the Bank of Canada decides next.<\/p>[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section][et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ _builder_version=”4.18.0″ _module_preset=”default” custom_padding=”1px||39px|||” da_disable_devices=”off|off|off” locked=”off” global_colors_info=”{}” da_is_popup=”off” da_exit_intent=”off” da_has_close=”on” da_alt_close=”off” da_dark_close=”off” da_not_modal=”on” da_is_singular=”off” da_with_loader=”off” da_has_shadow=”on”][et_pb_row _builder_version=”4.18.0″ _module_preset=”default” custom_padding=”16px||16px|||” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”4.18.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.20.2″ _module_preset=”default” text_font_size=”21px” text_line_height=”1.6em” header_2_font=”||||||||” header_2_font_size=”36px” header_2_line_height=”1.3em” header_3_font_size=”1.25rem” header_3_line_height=”1.88rem” header_4_font=”|700|||||||” header_4_font_size=”1.25rem” header_4_line_height=”1.88rem” min_height=”158.4px” text_font_size_tablet=”21px” text_font_size_phone=”16px” text_font_size_last_edited=”on|phone” header_2_font_size_tablet=”36px” header_2_font_size_phone=”25px” header_2_font_size_last_edited=”on|phone” global_colors_info=”{}”]

Ahead of the Bank of Canada\u2019s highly anticipated policy announcement on June 5, experts at some of the country\u2019s biggest banks are split on whether or not we\u2019ll see a cut to the mortgage-influencing overnight rate.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The toss-up is partly rooted in the <\/span>latest inflation data from Statistics Canada<\/span><\/a>. After years of post-pandemic exuberance, inflation finally sunk within the central bank\u2019s target range of 1 to 3% \u2014 but barely, at 2.9%.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n


\u201cWe believe that the door is open for a BoC rate cut, and we have been leaning to [a] June move for the past six months. But it remains a close call,\u201d writes BMO Chief Economist Douglas Porter<\/a> in a recent report.<\/span><\/p>\n

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The BoC uses its overnight rate, or key policy rate, to keep inflation running at a healthy clip: fast enough that there\u2019s economic growth, but not so fast that prices run away. Rate hikes are used to trim too-high inflation by discouraging demand for goods and services and encouraging saving. Cuts, on the other hand, can spur economic activity by making borrowing money and spending more attractive. (For a more detailed explanation, read Wahi\u2019s explainer on what you need to know<\/a> about the Bank of Canada\u2019s overnight rate.)<\/p>\n

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While higher rates have been a tough pill to swallow for many mortgage borrowers<\/a>, the general consensus is that the medicine is working \u2014 and markets are beginning to respond.<\/p>\n

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More Market-Watchers Expect a Cut<\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n

Bay Street traders have already priced in a rate cut<\/a>, with markets considering better-than-50-50 odds of a June cut. <\/span>The average Canadian is less convinced. Only 31% anticipate the central bank will start slashing rates in June, according to a survey by Dye & Durham<\/a> from its Canadian Pulse Report Q2 2024. \u201c[A] larger proportion say they are skeptical of rate cuts beginning so soon,\u201d the report reads. Some 41% of survey respondents say the BoC won\u2019t reduce rates, while 28% were unsure.<\/p>[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section][et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ _builder_version=”4.18.0″ _module_preset=”default” background_color=”#edf7f3″ custom_padding=”32px||32px||true|false” da_disable_devices=”off|off|off” locked=”off” global_colors_info=”{}” da_is_popup=”off” da_exit_intent=”off” da_has_close=”on” da_alt_close=”off” da_dark_close=”off” da_not_modal=”on” da_is_singular=”off” da_with_loader=”off” da_has_shadow=”on”][et_pb_row _builder_version=”4.18.0″ _module_preset=”default” custom_padding=”||25px|||” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”4.18.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.20.2″ _module_preset=”default” header_2_text_align=”center” header_2_text_color=”#38505b” header_2_font_size=”2.63rem” header_2_line_height=”3.75rem” max_width=”800px” module_alignment=”center” header_2_font_size_tablet=”32px” header_2_font_size_phone=”21px” header_2_font_size_last_edited=”on|phone” header_2_line_height_tablet=”3.75rem” header_2_line_height_phone=”32px” header_2_line_height_last_edited=”on|phone” global_colors_info=”{}”]

“Regardless of the bank\u2019s decision in June, most Canadians believe lower interest rates will positively impact their finances.”<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section][et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ _builder_version=”4.18.0″ _module_preset=”default” custom_padding=”32px||23px|||” da_disable_devices=”off|off|off” locked=”off” global_colors_info=”{}” da_is_popup=”off” da_exit_intent=”off” da_has_close=”on” da_alt_close=”off” da_dark_close=”off” da_not_modal=”on” da_is_singular=”off” da_with_loader=”off” da_has_shadow=”on”][et_pb_row _builder_version=”4.18.0″ _module_preset=”default” custom_padding=”11px||14px|||” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”4.18.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.18.0″ _module_preset=”default” text_font_size=”21px” text_line_height=”1.6em” header_2_font=”||||||||” header_2_font_size=”36px” header_2_line_height=”1.3em” header_3_font_size=”1.25rem” header_3_line_height=”1.88rem” header_4_font=”|700|||||||” header_4_font_size=”1.25rem” header_4_line_height=”1.88rem” text_font_size_tablet=”21px” text_font_size_phone=”16px” text_font_size_last_edited=”on|phone” header_2_font_size_tablet=”36px” header_2_font_size_phone=”25px” header_2_font_size_last_edited=”on|phone” global_colors_info=”{}”]

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In a separate report, TD Senior Economist Leslie Preston <\/span>won\u2019t call a June rate cut sure thing<\/span><\/a> either: \u201c[Inflation] is still close to the top of the BoC’s range, and we expect the bank will want to see a bit more confirmation before taking rates lower and lean towards a July cut.\u201d <\/span>
<\/span>
<\/span>Economists at RBC are more bearish. On top of the pace of inflation slowing, they cite rising unemployment and downward pressure on wages as other arguments for a cut. \u201c[T]he economic backdrop in Canada has continued to soften,\u201d <\/span>write RBC Economists Nathan Janzen and Abbey Xu<\/span><\/a> in an article.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n


Whatever the BoC\u2019s decision on the first Wednesday of June, TD\u2019s Preston suggests it won\u2019t be long before policymakers pull the trigger. \u201cBut June or July, Canadians can be increasingly confident that alongside lower inflation, interest rates are headed lower soon,\u201d she writes.

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Although a cut may be on the horizon sooner rather than later, Bryan Yu, chief economist at Central 1, tells Wahi that Canadians shouldn\u2019t expect a return to the historically low rates seen during the pandemic.<\/p>\n

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\u201cWe do think currently that June is probably the first cut, the question is how quickly afterwards we\u2019ll see that rate reduction occur and how deep,\u201d Yu tells Wahi, suggesting rates will sink to 4% by the end of this year and sit at 2.75% at 2025\u2019s conclusion. \u201cIt\u2019ll be a relatively modest reduction cycle.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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Homeowners Are Feeling the Pinch<\/b><\/h2>\n

For some, a rate cut \u2014 any cut \u2014 can\u2019t come soon enough. <\/span>
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<\/span>A growing number of <\/span>Canadians are falling behind<\/span><\/a> on their mortgage payments, finds a new report from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. \u201cUnder current interest rate conditions, more mortgage holders find themselves in precarious financial situations; the financial buffer they were able to build up during the pandemic has been exhausted,\u201d says the report.<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span>Meanwhile, 14% of Canadians surveyed say they\u2019ve put off buying a home until interest rates drop. \u201cRegardless of the bank\u2019s decision in June, most Canadians believe lower interest rates will positively impact their finances, and many are poised to begin making significant expenditures once rates start to fall,\u201d the Dye & Durham<\/a> report states.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][et_pb_row _builder_version=”4.18.0″ _module_preset=”default” custom_padding=”33px||33px||true|false” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”4.18.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_blurb title=”Josh Sherman” url=”https:\/\/wahi.com\/ca\/en\/author\/josh-shermanwahi-com\/” image=”https:\/\/wahi.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Screen-Shot-2022-11-02-at-7.46.57-PM.png” icon_placement=”left” _builder_version=”4.24.2″ _module_preset=”default” header_font_size=”24px” header_line_height=”1.2em” body_text_color=”#686E6E” body_line_height=”0em” width=”550px” max_width_tablet=”” max_width_phone=”” max_width_last_edited=”on|phone” module_alignment=”left” custom_padding=”2px||13px|||” header_font_size_tablet=”24px” header_font_size_phone=”20px” header_font_size_last_edited=”on|phone” header_line_height_tablet=”1.2em” header_line_height_phone=”1.4em” header_line_height_last_edited=”on|phone” custom_css_blurb_image=”width:64px;” global_colors_info=”{}”]

Wahi Writer<\/p>[\/et_pb_blurb][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][et_pb_row _builder_version=”4.18.0″ _module_preset=”default” custom_padding=”1px||0px|||” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”4.18.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][wahi_socialsharing module_class=”wahi_socialsharing_2″ _builder_version=”4.18.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/wahi_socialsharing][et_pb_divider show_divider=”off” _builder_version=”4.18.0″ _module_preset=”default” height=”30px” locked=”off” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/et_pb_divider][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section][et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ _builder_version=”4.18.0″ _module_preset=”default” background_color=”#ffffff” custom_padding=”5px||3px|||” da_disable_devices=”off|off|off” global_colors_info=”{}” da_is_popup=”off” da_exit_intent=”off” da_has_close=”on” da_alt_close=”off” da_dark_close=”off” da_not_modal=”on” da_is_singular=”off” da_with_loader=”off” da_has_shadow=”on”][et_pb_row _builder_version=”4.18.0″ _module_preset=”default” custom_padding=”||19px|||” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”4.18.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.20.2″ _module_preset=”default” text_font_size=”21px” text_line_height=”1.6em” header_2_font=”||||||||” header_2_font_size=”36px” header_2_line_height=”1.6em” header_3_font_size=”1.25rem” header_3_line_height=”1.88rem” header_4_font=”|700|||||||” header_4_font_size=”1.25rem” header_4_line_height=”1.88rem” custom_margin=”||23px|||” text_font_size_tablet=”21px” text_font_size_phone=”16px” text_font_size_last_edited=”on|phone” header_2_font_size_tablet=”29px” header_2_font_size_phone=”27px” header_2_font_size_last_edited=”on|phone” global_colors_info=”{}”]

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